INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 29, 2019, 7:53 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, April 29, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. March Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M%

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M%

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y%

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M%

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. April Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (expected 10.0; previous 8.3)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 11.5)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Arbor Day in Wyoming

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Confederate Memorial Day in Mississippi

 



 

 

Tuesday, April 30, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index

 



 

 

                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.0%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.6%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. April ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 59.0; previous 58.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 125.0; previous 124.1)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 99.8)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 160.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 101.9)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -4.9%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. April Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +5.7%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.9M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.2M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

 



 

 

  N/A               Foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities final results

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7675.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7675.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7411.67.  



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2904.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2946.00. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2904.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2844.63.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 148-17 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 145-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148-17. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the reaction low crossing at 145-03. Second support is March's low crossing at 143-16.



June T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 123.295 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 122.120 then March's low crossing at 121.155 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.295. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120. Second resistance is March's low crossing at 121.155.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. June's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.91 last-Friday confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.57 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.57. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.  



June heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 202.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 202.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17. 



June unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.69. 



June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.642 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.642. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.762. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.00 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.



The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.61. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.   



The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 1.2854 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3069 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3009. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3069. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9981 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9899. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9981. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713. 



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0904 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, November's low crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0904. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0893. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0892.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1289.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1289.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1305.20. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.



May silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.012 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.012. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.291. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 14.700. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.644.



May copper was lower overnight while extending the February-April trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, March's low crossing at 283.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.39 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 285.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 283.45.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's sharp sell off. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.29 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.57 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.67. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.42 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.29 1/4.  



May wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, March's low crossing at 4.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.52 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.40 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.52 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.28 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27. 



May Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/2-cents at 3.99 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.91 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.23 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.37 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3.99 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.91 1/2.    



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.13 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidate above key support marked bylast-September's low crossing at 8.53. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, Psychological support crossing at 8.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.84 3/4 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.84 3/4. First support is last-September's low crossing at 8.53. Second support is psychological support crossing at 8.50.



May soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 298.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 307.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 299.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 298.80.   



May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's sharp sell off. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 26.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.59. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 27.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.95.



Comments
By metmike - April 29, 2019, 11:24 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.