KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 1, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 425.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -7.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 269.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1293.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -11.0%)
8:15 AM ET. April ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +177000; previous +129000)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State
9:45 AM ET. April US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.4; previous 52.4)
10:00 AM ET. March Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. March Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.0%; previous +1.0%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. April ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 55.0; previous 55.3)
Prices Idx (previous 54.3)
Employment Idx (previous 57.5)
Inventories (previous 51.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 57.4)
Production Idx (previous 55.8)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 460.633M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.479M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 225.826M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.129M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 127.029M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.662M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.448M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.555M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 3.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.00)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:00 PM ET. April Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Thursday, May 2, 2019
7:30 AM ET. April Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -21%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 782.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 619.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 651.5K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +1.3%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +37K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1655000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)
9:45 AM ET. April ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 66.9)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -0.5%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.6%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1339B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +92B)
11:00 AM ET. April Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 50.6)
1:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, May 3, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +190K; previous +196K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.8%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.70)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.04)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.14%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +14K)
Private Payroll (previous +182K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.0%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. April US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 52.8; previous 55.3)
10:00 AM ET. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 57.0; previous 56.1)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 7.4)
Prices Idx (previous 58.7)
Employment Idx (previous 55.9)
New Orders Idx (previous 59.0)
Monday, May 6, 2019
10:00 AM ET. April Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 110.98)
ETI, Y/Y%
11:00 AM ET. April Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.7)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7709.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7709.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7441.64.
The June S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 2957.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2913.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2956.50. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2913.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2851.57.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 148-17 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 145-03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148-17. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the reaction low crossing at 145-03. Second support is March's low crossing at 143-16.
June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 123.295 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 122.120 then March's low crossing at 121.155 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 123.295. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120. Second resistance is March's low crossing at 121.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If June renews the rally off last-December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73 is the next upside target. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.83. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 202.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 202.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight and is poised to renew the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.92.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.626 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.755. First support is April's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.02 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.02. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.
The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off April's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.91. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.55. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 1.2854 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3161. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9960 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9960. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0037. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 75.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0904 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, November's low crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0904. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is April's low crossing at 0.0893. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0892.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight but remains poised to resume the rebound off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1288.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1288.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1303.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.071 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.071. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.335. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 14.700. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.727.
July copper was lower overnight while extending the February-April trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.92 would temper the bearish outlook. If July extends last week's decline, March's low crossing at 284.35 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 297.43. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 307.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 286.25. Second support is March's low crossing at 284.35.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off April's low.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.29 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.57. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.66. First support is April's low crossing at 3.42 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.29 1/4.
May wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.05 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.33. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.16 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.05 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 3.86 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.06 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.83 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.19 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.19 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.89 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 8.31 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.59 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.38 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 8.31 3/4.
May soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 265.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 307.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 295.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 265.90.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.48 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 26.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.48. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 27.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.95.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $0.18 at $89.23.
June hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.56. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.37. Second support is April's low crossing at 86.25.
June cattle closed down $0.55 at 114.25.
June cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 112.45 is the next downside target. Closes above 50-day moving average crossing at 120.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.13. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 122.38. First support is today's low crossing at 114.10. Second support the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 112.45.
May Feeder cattle closed down $1.80 at $141.60.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 140.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.48 would renew the rally off April's low. First resistance is April's high crossing at 152.23. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 155.30. First support is today's low crossing at 141.45. Second support is weekly support crossing at 140.45.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, April's high crossing at 24.34 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target.
July sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 12.29 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 80.54 is the next upside target.