The weather was getting too wet for wheat.
Friday Weather-drier in week 2 on Euro ensemble-06Z GFS operational
Saturday Weather-drier again
Weather Monday:-Drier in the 6-10 day not new now-wetter again late week 2??
Tuesday Weather: Same as Monday but rains returning in week 2, when will that be??
Sunday Weather: Warmer!
Areas of the country that grow Winter wheat:
Crop progress report from Monday:
Corn 15% vs 27% average
Beans 3% vs 6% average
HRS 13% vs 33% average
Winter wheat 64% gd/Ex vs 62%
Planting delayed states in corn:
Illinois 9% planted (5yr avg 43%)
Indiana 2% (5yr 17%)
Minnesota 2% (5yr 24%)
Ohio 2% (13%)
Minnesota 2% (33%)
N. Dakota 5% (21%)
S. Dakota 8% (60%)
Montana 23% (34%)
Export sales were poor:
Lows in 1 week, slight freeze threat this Friday morning in the S.Plains. Needs to get st 5 degrees colder.
USDA crop report:
Spring wheat up from 13% last week to just 22% planted vs average of 49%
MN/ND/SD leading the way behind numbers.
Winter wheat ratings dropped 3% out of excellent to good........not a big deal. Wet weather affecting the SRW crop a bit that needs dry and sunshine.
Ratings of 64% G/E tell us that a decent crop is on the way compared to a horrible 37% G/E last year.
weather updated 5-9
weather updated 5-10
WHEAT: The May USDA Supply & Demand and Production report for wheat was considered bearish with 2018-19 US wheat ending stocks coming in at 1.127 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 1.096 billion bushels (1.038-1.187 billion range) and compared to 1.087 billion in April. 2018-19 World ending stocks came in at 274.98 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 276.2 million tonnes (274.1-282.9 million range) and compared to 275.6 million in April. The 2019-20 US ending stocks came in at 1.141 million bushels versus the average estimate at 940 million bushels from a range of 881 to 1.173 billion bushels. The 2019-20 World ending stocks came in at 293.01 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 277.2 million tonnes from a range of 265.0 to 285.0 million tonnes. The US All Wheat production came in at 1.897 versus the average estimate 1.911 billion bushels (range 1.779-2.044 billion) and compared to last year's 1.884 billion. Total Winter wheat came in at 1.268 billion bushels versus the average estimate at 1.282 billion (1.116-1.406 range) and compared to 1.184 billion last year. The Hard Red wheat came in at 780 million bushels versus the average estimate at 766 million and compared to 662 million last year. Soft Red wheat came in at 265 million bushels versus the average estimate at 280 million bushels and compared to 286 million last year. White winter wheat came in at 224 million bushels versus the average estimate at 235 million bushels and compared to 236 million last year. PRICE OUTLOOK: Both old crop and new crop US ending stocks figures were above the average estimates. The USDA cut 2018-19 exports another 20 million bushels. The USDA also increased Russia's production to 77.0 million tonnes and the EU's to 153.8 million tonnes pushing 2019-20 world ending stocks to 293 million tonnes well above the estimates. July wheat next downside target is at 417 1/2 with resistance at 432. July KC wheat next downside swing target is at 383.5 with resistance at 399.5.
Export inspections. Corn and beans not so good. Wheat was excellent.
Money managers hit an all-time combined grains & oilseeds net short of 700,460 fut+opt contracts in week ended May 7. April 30 May 7, # fut+opt contracts:
#Corn -306,699 -282,327 #Soybeans -148,526 -160,553 (record)
#wheat -83,502 -82,146
Meal -15,599 -33,135