USDA-ERS
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Started by cliff-e - May 7, 2019, 5:48 p.m.
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Re: USDA-ERS
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By metmike - May 7, 2019, 7:02 p.m.
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Cliff, 

I'm sorry that farm income has plunged for you and those in agriculture.

From your article:

"A recent report shows a drop in farmers' income by about 50 percent since 2013, and says slightly more than half of farm households have faced negative farm income in recent years, forcing them to rely on other sources of income to support their families."


Look at the graph below from the link below. Who was president from 2013 to 2016 when farm income plunged?

Net farm income and net cash farm income, 2000-19F


Highlights From the March 2019 Farm Income Forecast

                             https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/highlights-from-the-farm-income-forecast/

Farm Sector Profits Expected To Increase in 2019

By metmike - May 7, 2019, 7:18 p.m.
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I'm sorry to say it but if you want better crop prices, we need to actually have some extremely adverse weather(not just say its there every year) that actually affects crop production in a significant way and drops stocks.

You understand that massive world supplies from the best weather/climate and especially beneficial CO2 in the last 1,000 years does not equate to anything but low prices. It's one of the prices that producers pay with this climate optimum(the opposite of the fake climate crisis).


However, 2019 is off to a potentially problematic production season with excessively wet conditions in the Eastern belt and MN/Dakotas. It's still just early May but we will see. It's unfortunate that the only way you will get good prices is if we finally have some serious weather adversity.

It's MUCH harder to reduce yields today because the increase in CO2 is adding 25% to crops like soybeans through the law of photosynthesis.  The upward slope on the yield curves below would not be nearly as steep if we went back to the old climate and old CO2.




https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/soyyld.php


Soybeans: Yield by Year, US

http://crazyeddiethemotie.blogspot.com/2014/10/corn-questions-from-food-inc-worksheet.html


World cereal markets remain well balanced in 2018/19

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

Estimates for global cereal production, utilization and stocks raised sharply following historical adjustments for China  

Release date: 04/04/2019