INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 1, 2018, 7:20 a.m.

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. 

stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings 

when the New York day session begins. 


Two important meetings have the attention of the world 

marketplace this week: The Federal Reserve’s Open Market 

Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends 

Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Also, a U.S. high-

level trade delegation will travel to China later this week 

to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest 

economies. President Trump late Monday decided to delay by 

one month implementing on the European Union proposed 

tariffs on aluminum and steel. Tariffs are in effect for 

Russia and China.


On Friday is the U.S. employment report from the Labor 

Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of 

the month.


The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. 

dollar index trading higher and at a nearly four-month 

high. 


Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading 

just below $68.00 a barrel. The U.S. oil rig count hit a 

three-year high last week and the IEA on Monday reported 

that U.S. crude oil production topped 10 million barrels a 

day in February—a record. These factors will limit buying 

interest in oil this week.


U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the 

weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales 

reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, 

the ISM manufacturing report on business, and domestic auto 

industry sales.


--Jim


U.S. STOCK INDEXES 


June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. 

trading. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-

term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The 

shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral 

early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-

day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-

term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to 

bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical 

resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,682.25 and then at 

last week’s high of 2,688.75. Buy stops likely reside just 

above those levels. Downside support for active traders 

today is located at 2,625.00 and then at last week’s low of 

2,611.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those 

levels. 


June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly 

lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages 

(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving 

average even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with 

the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) 

are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical 

resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 6,718.00 and then at 

last week’s high of 6,772.00. Buy stops likely reside just 

above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is 

seen at 6,550.00 and then at 6,500.00. Sell stops are likely 

located just below those levels. 


U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES


June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. 

Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. 

Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral 

early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. 

The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators 

(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-

term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 143 

28/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just 

above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s 

low of 142 30/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely 

reside just below those levels. 

 

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading 

today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are 

neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 

9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. 

Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early 

today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 

119.21.0 and then at 119.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just 

above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 

Monday’s low of 119.12.0 and then at 119.06.0. Sell stops 

likely reside just below those levels. 


U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a nearly four-

month high in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term 

moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early 

today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day 

is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators 

for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar 

index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 92.250 and 

then at 92.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the 

overnight low of 91.595 and then at Monday’s low of 91.280. 



NYMEX CRUDE OIL


June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. 

Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control. Look 

for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at 

the overnight high of $68.90 and then at Monday’s high of 

$69.34. Look for sell stops just below technical support at 

Monday’s low of $67.17 and then at $66.50. Wyckoff's Intra-

Day Market Rating: 4.5


GRAINS


Grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Farmers are in 

their fields at full speed, planting corn and preparing for 

soybean planting. That’s bearish but the grain market bulls 

still have some technical momentum on their side. Also, 

speculative traders are taking more interest in the long side 

of the grains, including the big “funds.”

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