Ken's commentary
0 responses | 0 likes
Started by jimwyckoff - May 1, 2018, 8:37 a.m.

Tuesday, May 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S.
stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings
when the New York day session begins.

Two important meetings have the attention of the world
marketplace this week: The Federal Reserve’s Open Market
Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends
Wednesday afternoon with a statement. Also, a U.S. high-
level trade delegation will travel to China later this week
to try to avert a trade war between the world’s two largest
economies. President Trump late Monday decided to delay by
one month implementing on the European Union proposed
tariffs on aluminum and steel. Tariffs are in effect for
Russia and China.

On Friday is the U.S. employment report from the Labor
Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of
the month.

The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S.
dollar index trading higher and at a nearly four-month
high.

Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading
just below $68.00 a barrel. The U.S. oil rig count hit a
three-year high last week and the IEA on Monday reported
that U.S. crude oil production topped 10 million barrels a
day in February—a record. These factors will limit buying
interest in oil this week.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the
weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales
reports, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending,
the ISM manufacturing report on business, and domestic auto
industry sales.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S.
trading. The bulls and bears are on a level overall near-
term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The
shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,682.25 and then at
last week’s high of 2,688.75. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 2,625.00 and then at last week’s low of
2,611.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly
lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with
the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 6,718.00 and then at
last week’s high of 6,772.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 6,550.00 and then at 6,500.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 143
28/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s
low of 142 30/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading
today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of
119.21.0 and then at 119.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Monday’s low of 119.12.0 and then at 119.06.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a nearly four-
month high in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term
moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early
today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 92.250 and
then at 92.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 91.595 and then at Monday’s low of 91.280.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading.
Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control. Look
for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at
the overnight high of $68.90 and then at Monday’s high of
$69.34. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
Monday’s low of $67.17 and then at $66.50. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. Farmers are in
their fields at full speed, planting corn and preparing for
soybean planting. That’s bearish but the grain market bulls
still have some technical momentum on their side. Also,
speculative traders are taking more interest in the long
side of the grains, including the big “funds.”

Comments
No replies yet. Be the first!