Have you or anybody else been paying any attention to Iran and the USA about the Straight of Hormez
Iran is threathening to close the water way if the USA tries to shut down Iran oil exports
supposedly 30% of world oil pass thru that water way
Might see oil go thru the roof [350 Richard??]
Wayne, thanks
I moved your post up to the trading section where Richard hangs out.
Previous oil discussions:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27668/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28808/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28857/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28629/
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Threatens-Iran-With-Show-Of-Force.html
"The US responded to flare ups in tensions with Iran with Iran’s Special Envoy Brian Hook vowing that any attack against the United States or its allies would be met with a show of force.
Hook assured an unsettled market that it had already factored in Iran’s oil exports falling to zero. Oil prices were up in afternoon trading, with WTI up over 1 percent on the day.
The strong words from the United States came after Iran announced it would no longer be curbing its nuclear program, threatening to go even further, saying it would resume enriching uranium at a higher level if the EU fails to live up to its end of the agreement by continuing Iranian oil purchases.
“In order to secure its rights and restore balance to the demands of the parties to the agreement, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no option other than "reducing commitments",” Rouhani said in a statement."
China imported around 800,000 bpd of crude from Iran in April—the highest amount that Iran’s top oil customer purchased since August last year—as Chinese refiners rushed to buy Iranian oil ahead of the expiry of the U.S. sanction waiver at the beginning of May, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing ship tracking data from Refinitiv.
I am very much aware of the situation with Iran. Even if we have a full war, I do not see $350 oil on this move. I see $350 going into 2026. I do see a war coming and think we will see a run up to $200-$225 and then all the way back down to $100 so that Trump can try and get re-elected. I am currently long the WTIC Sept $100 Calls, and perhaps a few others. As I stated in pj's post on gold/silver, I purchased 5 Aug silver 16.50 calls TODAY. Without a war, they could go to zero, obviously.
Thanks Richard!
EIA report:
Latest Release May 08, 2019 Actual-3.963M Forecast1.215M Previous9.934M
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2019 | 10:30 | -3.963M | |||
| May 08, 2019 | 10:30 | -3.963M | 1.215M | 9.934M | |
| May 01, 2019 | 10:30 | 9.900M | 1.485M | 5.479M | |
| Apr 24, 2019 | 10:30 | 5.479M | 1.255M | -1.396M | |
| Apr 17, 2019 | 10:30 | -1.396M | -1.200M | 7.029M | |
| Apr 10, 2019 | 10:30 | 7.029M | 2.294M | 7.238M |
Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W
Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W
Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast).
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4262745-physical-oil-market-tightness-pushed-us-go-long-oil
Summary
Brent timespreads are making another high today indicating an even tighter market balance globally.
WTI timespreads are moving lower, however, as refinery outages along the coast impact near-term crude demand.
Brent-WTI spread is widening to $9/bbl indicating US crude exports will average close to ~2.8 mb/d in the coming weeks.
We went long UWT today as the tariffs are now in place, but the market appears to be fixated on the physical shortage near-term.
Has anybody been aware the USA oil reserve is contaminated.
3 Co's reported purchases of oil was contaminated
You can goggle the oil contamination story for more info
You will also find info on shale oil not being any good for diesel fuel
Russia seems to be in the cat bird seat
As you goggle you will find the oil biz is very complex