INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 9, 2019, 7:40 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, May 9, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 796K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 336.9K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 419.5K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. March U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -50.2B; previous -49.38B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 209.69B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 259.07B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 230K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1671000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 462B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +123B)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. April Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

1:30 PM ET. May 9 Economic Forum

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

  N/A             Chinese delegation in U.S. to for latest talks on bilateral trade relationship

 



 

 

  N/A               SEC Annual Conference On Financial Market Regulation commences

 



 

 

Friday, May 10, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +3.5%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +1.9%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET:  April Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight tracking losses for Asian equities, as trade tensions were heightened after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariff retaliation on China, which he claims “broke the deal”. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7509.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7748.43 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7509.85. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7371.42.  



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high and tested support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 2850.78. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2915.67 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 2957.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2863.81. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-04 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 149-06. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-04. Second support is April's low crossing at 145-31.



June T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 124.310 is the next upside targets. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 122.300 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.060. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is April's low crossing at 122.205. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 122.120.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil was lower in late-overnight trading as it appears to be forming a small symmetrical triangle. A breakout in either direction of this consolidation pattern should point the direction of the next short-term trending move. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 60.04 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is Monday's low crossing at 60.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.  



June heating oil was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.12. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17. 



June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.56 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.56. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.



June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.626 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 2.444 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.727. First support is April's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.444.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.22 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.22. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.



The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.65 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.26. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.   



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.2899 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3146 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3323. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.  



The June Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.9920 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9920. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0007. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713. 



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 0.0918 is the next  upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0901 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0915. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0918. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0904. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0901.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1296.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1296.20. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.



July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.942 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.942. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.187. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 14.570. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460.



July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 282.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.28. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 278.06. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 272.86   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's loss. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible ahead of Friday's WASDE report. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 3.55 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.90. First support is April's low crossing at 3.51 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



July wheat was lower overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.44 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.44 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.56 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.26. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4. 



July Kansas City Wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 4.03 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.14 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.14 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.34. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.90 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.  



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline due to uncertainty over the U.S./China trade negotiations and the upcoming WASDE report due out on Friday. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, weekly support crossing at 8.12 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 8.40 1/2 would suggest that the aforementioned gap might have been an exhaustion gap. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.67 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.42 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.67 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 8.16 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 8.12 1/4.



July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 291.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 297.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 291.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 291.30.   



July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 25.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.12. First support is Monday's low crossing at 26.58. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed limit $0.70 at $85.55. 



June hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April-29th low crossing at 87.03 are needed to renew the decline off April's high. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.95. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73. 



June cattle closed down $1.20 at 111.07. 



June cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 117.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.61. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.28. First support is today's low crossing at 110.92. Second support the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. 

 

May Feeder cattle closed down $1.52 at $135.77. 



May Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 139.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at 139.91. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.99. First support is Monday's low crossing at 133.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 24.34 is the next upside target.          



July sugar closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this spring's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this spring's decline, last-September's low crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



July cotton closed lower on Wednesday and renewed the decline off 2018's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of 2018's rally crossing at 70.89 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap down crossing at 75.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - May 9, 2019, 11:36 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Corn weather looking drier, better for planting/more bearish today.