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Started by metmike - May 11, 2019, 12:32 p.m.

Because of the political comment by me in the story below, I moved this article down to the NTR section. Originally, I was just posting trade related stuff but the biased speculative political comment came from the MSM  news source in the 2nd article, which I felt compelled to comment on.

China Names Its Trade-Deal Price as Trump Sets New Deadline                

          * Envoy Liu He sets three conditions in state press interview                    

          *Trump threatens to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports                    

"China for the first time made clear what it wants to see from the U.S. in talks to end their trade war, laying bare the deep differences that still exist between the two sides."

Re: China
By metmike - May 11, 2019, 12:41 p.m.
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Unlike China's Xi, Trump is not president for life

"Some have speculated that he is simply negotiating, believing the strength of the U.S. economy gives him room to play hardball. Others think that the president believes the tariffs will hurt China more than the U.S., emboldening Trump as he perceives an advantage. 

It could also be that the president, used to being able to walk away from a deal, isn’t considering the different dynamics involved in negotiating with a sovereign power as opposed to a contractor bidding to construct one of his new buildings.

Still others conjecture that the president is using the potential negative near-term effects on the economy to force the Federal Reserve into lowering rates.

However, even if the tariffs were to slow economic growth enough to force the Federal Reserve into lowering rates, it seems counterproductive to intentionally slow the economy through tariffs if the point of lower rates is to juice the economy.

That would merely be trading the hoped-for positive near-term economic effects of lower rates against the actual negative near-term effects of reduced trade and declining business sentiment."

"It could also be that Trump is attempting to distract the media — using the escalation in the trade war to crowd out coverage of the ongoing battle with Democrats over access to his taxes and special counsel Robert Mueller's full report. "

metmike: The MSM always has to throw in speculation like this to empower it's interests in taking down Trump:

This suggests that Trump is so consumed with his desire to cover up crimes from the Demcrats who are seeking truth and justice, that he is willing to act in a way that is detrimental to US interests in this key relationship/trade war and do things that were not part of his original plan with China in order to take the heat off from the MSM...............which would NEVER happen.

As you just read, the MSM not only keeps the heat on with regards to the investigations(they can't help mentioning it in a China trade war story), they pile on at every opportunity, adding a new element to it here..............Trumps actions with China might actually just be him trying to get the media off of his back and not him trying to win the trade war.

By TimNew - May 11, 2019, 2:28 p.m.
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At least it's on the opinion page.  Often, this sort of thing is packaged as news.

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 3:25 p.m.
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Thanks Tim for pointing that out.

I hadn't even noticed.

By TimNew - May 11, 2019, 8:35 p.m.
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That's understandable.  News and editorial are nearly indistinguishable these days, particularly where Trump is concerned.

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 9:47 p.m.
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A continuation of the discussion is here:

                By cliff-e - May 11, 2019, 3:41 p.m.            


Transshipments. This was talked about Friday on MSNBC. China goods still get here and consumers ultimately pay the tariffs. Freight brokers are laughing all the way to the bank.


                By TimNew - May 11, 2019, 8:43 p.m.            


You don't really understand tariffs,  do you?  Of course consumers pay the tariffs. That's the whole idea. But last week, a Chinese electronic component that cost 400 will now cost 500. And the US component  that sold for 425 is still selling for 425.  So,the consumer may chose to pay the 100 tariff,  but odds are, at least some,most, all?  will chose the 425 US component.


                By cliff-e - May 11, 2019, 9:16 p.m.            


It's doubtful the US made component (if available) will stay at $425 and when the price of all foreign or domestic goods and domestic goods made with foreign parts inflates (it's called inflation) people will stop buying, we'll see factory layoffs and we're plunged into recession/depression. We're already seeing sluggish sales of whole goods in rural America. America is getting hit in the breadbasket again.  We've been down this road before.


                By metmike - May 11, 2019, 9:23 p.m.            


U.S.-China Trade Standoff May Be Initial Skirmish in Broader Economic War

WASHINGTON —" A yearlong trade war between the United States and China is proving to be an initial skirmish in an economic conflict that may persist for decades, as both countries battle for global dominance, stature and wealth."

"The United States is increasingly wary of China’s emerging role in the global economy and the tactics it uses to get ahead, including state-sponsored hacking, acquisitions of high-tech companies in the United States and Europe, subsidies to crucial industries and discrimination against foreign companies."

The Trump administration has begun trying to limit China’s economic influence in the United States and abroad, warning about China’s ambitions in increasingly stark terms. Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, compared China’s ambitions to Russia and Iran in a speech in London last Wednesday, saying Beijing poses “a new kind of challenge; an authoritarian regime that’s integrated economically into the West in ways that the Soviet Union never was.”

"China, whose ambition is to dominate industries of the future, is pushing back. A column on Saturday in the Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper stated, “The United States is again waving the club of tariffs after misjudging China’s strength, capacity and will"

"The notion that the United States has one last shot to change China’s behavior is held by an array of people on both sides of the political spectrum."

"Many in China see the United States as a declining power bent on enforcing its will on a world that no longer cowers before its hegemonic might. The troubles in American democracy and the long economic slump after 2008 persuaded many in China that its instincts to chart its own course were correct. In the eyes of many Chinese, their country is simply reclaiming its historic status as a dominant regional power in Asia."

"It has also projected power across Asia, Africa and elsewhere"  "they have long thought the United States would have a difficult time accepting a true peer in economic, technology and military power, so consider the management of conflict with the United States to be an inevitable result of their own rise."


                By cliff-e - May 11, 2019, 9:37 p.m.            


And there's that foreign debt to China issue...

Some will think just file bankruptcy and walk away. Folks this ain't a failed Jersey City casino...this is our country and I don't speak Mandarin. Hitting America in the breadbasket will only make matters worse.


                By metmike - May 11, 2019, 9:42 p.m.            

            political connection to this topic below

Biden's China gaffe highlights Democrats' difficulty in bucking new status quo

"Former Vice President Joe Biden’s recent jaw-dropper that China is not America’s competition is simultaneously wrong and informative for 2020. The “wrong” is obvious, but the “informative” is more important because it demonstrates how quickly the potential opposition to Trump can shrink. Among the most prominent components of this attrition is the difference between a generic and a real challenger. 

On May 1, Biden stunned everyone from Foggy Bottom to the Middle Kingdom by stating: “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on man … they’re not competition for us.” Despite eight years in the previous administration and six terms in the Senate, Biden’s observation runs counter to all evidence — economic, military and foreign policy — as China does to America’s values. China is America’s greatest competitor — it has been since the Soviet Union’s collapse left it the only other superpower.  

Not only is Biden’s stance wrong — and dangerous — but it did not come from just anyone. Biden is the Democrats’ frontrunner. He is a pillar of the Democratic establishment and possesses more experience than any number of his countless nomination rivals put together. He is the cream of the Democrats’ crop.

Further, Biden’s belief runs counter to Democrats’ presumptive line of defense against a potential Trump trade deal with China: It’s not tough enough, and they would have struck a better one. Not surprisingly, even some Democrats refuted Biden’s erroneous claims.

It would seem unlikely that something so wrong on every level could still yield insight; however, it unintentionally does. If nothing else, Biden’s remark shows the fallacy of assuming that Democratic challengers automatically inherit as supporters, let alone finish with, those who do not currently approve of Trump."

"Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have to do so by running left. Running left means running away from the moderates at the center who will determine 2020’s outcome — that is a big mistake, but Democratic voters are demanding it.

To understand Democrats’ danger from running left, even if just to win the nomination, look at 2016 exit polling. Liberals, who are now ascendant in the Democratic Party, made up just 26 percent of 2016 voters. With that as their core, Democrats will need to nearly double it to reach 50 percent. 

In contrast, conservatives were 35 percent of 2016 voters. That means Trump only needs to increase his conservative base by roughly half to reach 50 percent. 

View Democrats’ 2020 dilemma from the perspective of 2016’s 39 percent of voters who described themselves as moderates. From a liberal base, Democrats will need 62 percent of moderates to reach 50 percent of the electorate. From his conservative base, Trump will need just 38 percent."