Soybeans
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Started by coffeeclotch - May 11, 2019, 1:19 p.m.

any support ?

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Re: Soybeans
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By metmike - May 11, 2019, 1:52 p.m.
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Good question. We made new 10 year lows last week!


I moved the weather to the top here:


Sunday Weather: Warmer!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29970/

Monday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30066/

Tuesday Weather:  Heat ridge more impressive-storms/rain late week bullish

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30177/

Wednesday: Heat ridge breaks down towards the end of week 2-heavy rain forecasts late this week into early/mid next week.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30239/

Weather Thursday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30279/

Friday Weather: Heavy rains next week around a big Heat ridge in the Southeast.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30354/

Saturday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30434/


Sunday Weather: Excessive rains still coming

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30501/



Monday Weather: Excessive rains this week(Plains/WCB but changes down the road.........maybe

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30583/



By metmike - May 11, 2019, 1:56 p.m.
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Corn Prices to Hit Near-Record Lows, Time to Trim Soybean Acres


https://www.agweb.com/article/corn-prices-to-hit-near-record-lows-time-to-trim-soybean-acres/


"We need to cut 10 million-plus soybean acres to get back to higher prices, said Arlan Suderman, with INTL FCStone. “And that’s likely not going to happen.”

The 10 million acres is needed if farmers maintain the high yields experienced in the past few years, Suderman noted. Weather concerns, delayed planting and any potential production issues could change that number.

However, Suderman said the markets aren’t giving enough credit to African swine flu (ASF) and its erosion on soybean demand.

“USDA has failed to tell the accurate story of ASF and what’s it doing to demand destruction on soybeans over the last six months,” Suderman said. “It has not given farmers the information they needed to anticipate what was going to happen.”

While ASF has decimated soybean demand, Suderman and Nellinger both feel optimism for corn demand, including Chinese demand.

“There may be less need for feed looking at soybeans, so that’s lower potential there,” Suderman said. “But corn prices in China are still strong, basis is strong, they’re still feeding hogs with corn and they’re producing more ethanol.”

By metmike - May 11, 2019, 1:59 p.m.
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https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf


 SOYBEANS SOYBEANS: The May USDA Supply & Demand report for soybeans was considered bearish with 2018-19 US ending stocks coming in at 995 million bushels versus the average estimate of 926 million bushels (range 880-1.038 billion) and compared to 895 million in April. The 2018-19 world ending stocks came in at 113.18 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 109.0 million tonnes (range 107.0-115.7) and compared to 107.4 million in April. The new crop 2019-20 US ending stocks came in at 970 million bushels versus the average estimate of 940 million bushels in a range of 786 million-1.216 billion. The 2019-20 World ending stocks came in at 113.09 million tonnes versus the average estimate at 110.9 million tonnes in a range 100.0-120.0 million. Brazil's soybean production came in at 117.0 million tonnes versus the average estimate at 117.0 million tonnes (116.0-118.0 million range) and compared to the April estimate of 117.0 million tonnes. Argentine soybean production came in at 56.0 million tonnes versus the average estimate at 55.7 million tonnes (55.0-57.0 million) and compared to 55.0 million tonnes last month. PRICE OUTLOOK: The USDA finally addressed the slow export pace by cutting the 2018-19 exports by 100 million bushels to 1.775 million bushels. This went straight to the ending stocks pushing them to 995 million bushels, 69 million bushels above the average estimate. Both world and US ending stocks are at a record high. The market is extremely oversold and may have priced in much of the bearishness. July may see some pschological support near 799.

By coffeeclotch - May 11, 2019, 2:48 p.m.
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Thanks met Mike.. Any personal thoughts? Weather disruption possibilities?

By mcfarm - May 12, 2019, 2:45 p.m.
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the metmen may want to pop outside before many bold announcements about warm and dry....48 here light rain all day.....again...and you might want to check out that spinner now entering western Illinois....the first 80 we see might maybe perhaps make it by next weekend at the earliest....after today we {this area and a large piece of the corn belt} are going to need days not hours of sun and warm. I see there is also a chance of rain on Wednesday. In a spring like this a chance means many more percentage points than usual. If that rain happens we are done for another week which puts us right into the 22nd of May

By bowyer - May 12, 2019, 8:55 p.m.
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I agree. Here in Illinois we had light rain and cold all day yesterday which wasn't forecasted. Rain all day again today. .25 inch last I looked. Not sure if we hit 50 degrees. 7 days of "no" rain doesn't mean 7 days of planting. I don't think think there is a field that I wouldn't bury my tractor in tomorrow, Maybe late in the week I can find a field that I won't get stuck in. I'm glad that the rest of the cornbelt will be planting all week. I'm well hedged but would also like to get something planted !

By metmike - May 12, 2019, 10:03 p.m.
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 I totally understand the mega frustration that you guys are feeling right now.

Extremely low prices(beans the lowest in over a decade) and you can't even get a seed in the ground as the weather couldn't be worse for planting.

However, the market is looking ahead. Not to the next few days but after that.

This heat ridge coming in will bring widespread 80's. The waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt will be the driest for the longest and the high angled mid/late May sun will dry things out quick enough for planting to catch up a great deal.

Several days with temperatures as seen below (day 5 is Friday right now) will have you guys in the fields finally.

A bit late and not optimal soil conditions and market conditions are horrible.  I think alot of non farming people probably don't understand how so much is beyond your control and the risks(from weather and market conditions).

Sadly, we  are in a VERY poor environment for crop farming here is May 2019. 


What will change that? Sadly, a crop failure because of weather to take the glut in supply off the market. My farmer friends here in sw. Indiana say jokingly every year that they hope that we have a drought..........in Iowa. mcfarmer wants his drought to be in Indiana (-:  

If the value of the dollar would plunge, we might increase exports, which have been crummy. 

All I can say is that I feel for you guys and can just try to give you my best at weather forecasting for free. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gif

By bowyer - May 12, 2019, 10:47 p.m.
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Thanks Mike. Wasn't intending to bash you ! This is the place I come to get my weather forecast and to hear your opinion, which I highly value. I'm learning to try to think like a trader and not a farmer. That's why I am super short on beans and am making more money on this drop, than if the market was going up. Thanks for keeping the forum going !

By bowyer - May 12, 2019, 10:59 p.m.
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You know in a couple of weeks we will be complaining that it's too hot and dry ! :)

By metmike - May 12, 2019, 11:34 p.m.
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Thanks,

I never sensed any bashing intentions. Appreciate your comments.

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 2:33 a.m.
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Highlights From the March 2019 Farm Income Forecast

                             

Farm Sector Profits Expected To Increase in 2019


https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/highlights-from-the-farm-income-forecast/

                        

                            Net farm income and net cash farm income, 2000-19F

By mcfarm - May 13, 2019, 6:09 a.m.
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ditto the bash comments just up dating. Metmike has some of the best data anywhere to be found. New outlook for this week.......wind chill 39 with cold rain now...37 with frost tomorrow...chance of rain wed...now 40% for thurs and chance Friday and sunday.....no drying to be found

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Export inspections. Corn and beans not so good. Wheat was excellent.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

 

                                     

Last week's U.S. #wheat inspections were the largest since Sept. 2016 and incl. 399k tonnes HRW and 210kt HRS. Some 272k tonnes of #soybeans were shipped to #China. #Corn inspections are now up 5% over last year, but they were up 7% last week (gap is closing).

                                                 

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                                              

                                                       

We have to find some way to reduce these large stocks of U.S. #soybeans that #China is not buying. You can't just ship these raw soybeans shown in the chart to a 3rd world country and just expect them to "eat" them. That is not how this works.

                                               

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 12:34 p.m.
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    Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                       

   

                                     

Money managers hit an all-time combined grains & oilseeds net short of 700,460 fut+opt contracts in week ended May 7. April 30 ➡️ May 7, # fut+opt contracts:

#Corn -306,699 ➡️ -282,327

#Soybeans -148,526 ➡️ -160,553 (record)

 CBOT #wheat -83,502 ➡️ -82,146

 Meal -15,599 ➡️ -33,135

                                                       

 

                                    


            

                

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 4:30 p.m.
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Crop progress numbers:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2019.txt


Less planted corn than expected(by the market). Almost tied with 2013 as the slowest planting in the last 2 decades. Soybeans also had much less planted than expected and close to the slowest.

U.S. planting progress, May 12:

#Corn 30% (23% last week, 66% average, trade guess 35%)

#Soybeans 9% (6% last week, 29% avg, trade guess 15%) 

Spring #wheat 45% (22% last week, 67% avg, trade guess 35%)


Trade expectations for Crop Progress. Last year on May 12, #corn was 59% planted, #soybeans 32%, spring #wheat 54%. Five-year average for corn is 66%, soybeans 29%, spring wheat 67%.

                                                 

 

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 4:31 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx           8m8 minutes ago              

   

                                     

Notable delays, #soybeans

Illinois 3% (5yr avg 34%) 

Indiana 2% (26%)

 Iowa 13% (31%)

 Arkansas 21% (53%) 

Mississippi 33% (69%)

 Louisiana 53% (75%) 

Minnesota 3% (36%) 

N Dak 5% (20%)

 S Dak 0% (19%)

 Wisconsin 4% (17%)

 Michigan 3% (17%) 

Ohio 2% (20%)

 Nebraska 20% (32%)

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 6:05 p.m.
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By mcfarm - May 13, 2019, 6:27 p.m.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjqBepE-UGM   middle of country to light up right thru end of month......sad days for producers

Re: Soybeans
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By cliff-e - May 13, 2019, 6:41 p.m.
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Much chart damage has been done with tariff retaliations.

"The trend is your what?"

http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=zsn19

http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=zsx19

By metmike - May 16, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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By metmike - May 18, 2019, 1:24 p.m.
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metmike: Funds obviously covered some of this position after this Tuesday report.


  Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  21h21 hours ago              

                                         

Week ended May 14 was the 5th week in a row that funds set a new combined net short in CBOT grain/oilseed fut+opt: 719,076 contracts.

 May 7 ➡️ May 14

:#Corn -282,327 ➡️ -282,918

#Soybeans -160,553 ➡️ -168,835 (record)

 Corn producer -16,340 ➡️ -4,516

 Soy prod. +70,077 ➡️ +66,862

                                                       

 

                     

 

                           

 

                           

 

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 11:19 a.m.
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mon wx updated

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

metmike: Exports good wheat, not so good S and C:


      Darin D. Fessler@DDFalpha                  21m21 minutes ago              

                                         

Export Inspections (TMT):#corn#soybeans#wheat#sorghum#barley

                                                          

 

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 12:39 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  21m21 minutes ago              

  

  

                                     

Table: Crop Progress Expectations 5 yr planting averages, May 19: #Corn 80%, #soybeans 47%, spring #wheat 80%. Slowest-ever May 19: corn 50% 1995; soy 12% 1983 Slowest May 19 post-2000: corn 68% 2009; soy 24% 2013#plant19