KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 3, 2018
7:30 AM ET. April Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +71%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous -0.1%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 620.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 537.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 577.9K)
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -57.59B)
Exports (USD) (previous 204.445B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +1.7%)
Imports (USD) (previous 262.04B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 209K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -24K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1837000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -29K)
9:45 AM ET. April US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.0)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +3.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
10:00 AM ET. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 58.8)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 60.6)
Prices Idx (previous 61.5)
Employment Idx (previous 56.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 59.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1281B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -18B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, May 4, 2018
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +103K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.82)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +1K)
Private Payroll (previous +102K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State
11:00 AM ET. April Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as investors continued to decipher the Federal Reserve’s policy signals and braced for another batch of corporate earnings. Likely to see action are shares of Tesla Inc., Square Inc. and other companies that released results after hours on Wednesday, while Dow-DuPont Inc and Kellogg’s are on the earnings list early today.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the late-April low, April's high crossing at 6867.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 6578.75 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 6867.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. First support is the late-April low crossing at 6429.25. Second support is April's low crossing at 6306.75.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 2584.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2684.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2718.00. Second resistance isthe reaction high crossing at 2741.00. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 2613.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight and appears poised to resume the rally off last Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-06 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 141-17. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.311 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.311. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.068. First support is the late-April low crossing at 118.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 69.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.45.
June heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 217.26. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.38.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 215.23. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.90.
June Henry natural gas was higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 2.873 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.763 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.691. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.660.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 93.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 92.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.41.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 119.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.79 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.79. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 119.65. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54.
The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1.3559 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4036 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3839. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4036. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3582. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.3559.
The June Swiss Franc were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9991 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0307 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0166. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0307. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0036. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9991.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 77.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is the reaction low crossing at 77.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9283 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9191. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9283 First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.9111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1333.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1333.20. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20.
May silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.611 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.611. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.735. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 16.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was sharply higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 309.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 297.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 309.56. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 319.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 299.85. Second support is April's low crossing at 297.00.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.06 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.06 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.92 1/2.
July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the late-April low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.91 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.31 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.92 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 2 1/4-cents at 5.55 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.63. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.19. Second support is April's low crossing at 4.94 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4, April's high crossing at 6.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.10 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.27 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.42 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 10.78 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.90 1/4. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 10.27 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.14.
July soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 414.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 406.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 386.90. Second support is the late-April's low crossing at 373.80.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.93. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.34. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.55 at $74.82.
June hogs closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.66 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the reaction high, crossing at 79.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 81.33. First support is today's low crossing at 74.75. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25.
June cattle closed up $0.18 at 105.05.
June cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 106.93 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.72. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed down $0.45 at $140.15.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.53. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 142.65. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.92 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.25 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 29.07 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this year's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.04 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
July cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday and Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 82.13 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's decline confirming that a double top with March's high might have been posted with Monday's high. If July extends today's decline, April's low crossing at 78.55 is the next downside target. If July resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 85.83 is the next upside target.