grain closing
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Started by mcfarm - May 13, 2019, 3:25 p.m.

corn 13 cents off the low and beans 12.....that has to be good news, right?

By bcb - May 13, 2019, 3:54 p.m.
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Outside day for both corn and wheat. Now we need some follow thru tomorrow.

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 5:41 p.m.
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Sure looked positive and like a selling exhaustion. 

The corn planting number of 30% was bullish as expected vs the average trade guess of 35%, so we may get started tonight with a little gap higher in the corn.

The NWS extended forecasts are pretty wet and if I believed that much rain, I would be pretty bullish right now. However, the huge question is how much of the heavy rains in the Plains will march east into the ECB late this weekend/early next week(the state of IL specifically) and will a warm front from the Upper Midwest, back down to the S.Great Lakes bring rains to the ECB before that.

The models have the ECB as the driest place and next week, after this big system passes, it might be very warm and dry there.

I am unsure of where prices will go based on this weather but if we add rain to IL, we can spike higher, especially with funds having a huge short position. If the ECB ends of pretty dry the next 2 weeks and includes IL, along with the warmth on the way allowing for catching up, then it's hard to get real bullish. 

With the China situation and mega bearish USDA report already out, bearish surprises are less likely and maybe all dialed in, which often happens with a selling exhaustion. 

But then, today's mega bullish planting number, the most bullish one since 2013, might end up being the most bullish of the season if we start catching up and the rain holds off in IL. 

By bcb - May 13, 2019, 9:13 p.m.
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Il next week will be lucky to be at 30% planted and we haven't even touched about replanted acres as a whole. Just mho.

Dec. corn unchanged for the yr. 395

By mcfarm - May 13, 2019, 9:19 p.m.
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you want to know why corn is up 7 and beans 12 tonite on the open watch the weather video I put up earlier in combo with todays planting progress.....models have turned  crappy kind of wet ....right thru the end of may

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 10:08 p.m.
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Thanks mcfarm,

If you look at his maps, you will note that the heaviest rains are to the west and north of Indiana with temperatures above normal.

It's the  Central belt and Upper Midwest that  look to have the heavy rains. with the events coming up from days 4-9. The latest guidance does have some of that hitting IN early next week for a couple of days, like days 8-9, then dry again.

Days 10 thru 15 below from the latest GFS Ensembles,  actually looks like  well below normal in the ECB.  The European model is a bit wetter and I included that below but it still is below rain for you.

I think that he's missing this pattern change. The heat ridge that has been in the Southeast will be expanding farther northwest and potentially shutting down the rains and cranking up the heat into the ECB.

European model below.

By bowyer - May 13, 2019, 10:43 p.m.
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I'm at 0% planted corn. 0% planted beans. (illinois). Took profits on a Nov $9.00 put right after the open this morning.  I shock myself by doing something right from time to time. Maybe it will turn out being wrong ! Still am short a bunch of sold calls. I'd really like to see corn rally. Still have some old crop to price and am hedged maybe 25% new. Still very wet here

By metmike - May 13, 2019, 11:01 p.m.
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Congrats on the great timing for that trade bowyer!

Let's hope the heavier rains avoid your farm and the overall drier pattern comes to fruition. 

I know that the NWS extended forecasts looked pretty wet today but the models, after day 10 look on the dry side. If the models don't change. the 8-14 day forecasts will start drying out, maybe as soon as tomorrow and going thru the rest of the week.

If the models do change and keep it wet thru week 2, things will get wild. 

By bowyer - May 14, 2019, 12:05 a.m.
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I have a feeling corn acres AND yield will be less than what the last report stated. Even if we somewhat catch up some in the next few weeks. Things will just have to be perfect from this point on. I think we can have good yields, just not great yields. Couple this with less acres and maybe we can get a nice rally. Maybe wishful thinking on my part, but I've added some 4.00 Dec calls. What if we mud the corn in, and it turns hot and dry in July ?

By metmike - May 14, 2019, 7:28 p.m.
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The expected gaps higher on the Monday Night open(from bullish/low planting #'s) found tons of aggressive, sustained buying. I imagine the funds covered many tens of thousands of contracts of their record short. 

That was more impressive than I was expecting!

The next weather system coming in has the heaviest rain along and west of the Mississippi River. How much is forecast for Illinois is a big deal right now. As you can see below, amounts taper off when this system hits the big heat ridge to the east, with IN not getting as much as places to the west.

3+ inches of rain could fall in MN and IA. 

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By bowyer - May 14, 2019, 8:15 p.m.
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Par for the course I guess. Not sure where our 7 days of warm and dry went to. Cloudy and cool here all day with light rain all afternoon. Another 2/10 " The ground is shiny on the surface and not a tractor in the fields to be found. The bright side is that our spot corn bid from the low yesterday went from $3.12 to $3.38 today

By metmike - May 14, 2019, 10:28 p.m.
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It's only Tuesday bowyer. You're still in the cold air. 

A wave along the approaching warm front is triggering the showers right now.   Most of them are light but hopefully one of the heavier ones doesn't hit you tonight.

Rain chances end for awhile Wednesday but you still have east winds and the warm front doesn't come blowing thru until Wednesday night..........THEN your weather turns very warm and windy  and dry for an additional 3 days.

Temps Thu/Fri/Sat will be in the 80's with winds gusting above 20 mph and high angled mid May sunshine warming the ground and drying it out. 

THEN, rain chances from this next system start late Saturday.  Best chance of thunderstorms is Sunday, then the front hopefully passes thru.

What we don't want to see, is the front to stall out and sit nearby you early next week, acting to focus rounds of thunderstorms in you neck of the woods. That could happen on Tue/Wed of next week.

After that, it looks like you will be close to the outside edge  of the protection from the heat ridge.

Under this heat ridge, temps will be well into the 80's and dry.  This looks like it will extend from the St. Louis area and points south and east. This will last for numerous days. The exact location of the heat ridge is uncertain, so hopefully, its coverage expands far enough to be over your farm late next week and afterwards. 

Areas just outside of its protection(on the periphery) will have rain chances.

This is your hourly weather below from Thursday to Saturday afternoon.

48-Hour Period Starting:  Thursday 4pm


Forward 2 Days  

Forward 2 Days  

By bowyer - May 14, 2019, 11:32 p.m.
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Thank You ! What are your thoughts on the dryness in the Carolinas ? Is it true most midwest droughts originate in the southeast? Yep, now I'm worried about drought

By metmike - May 15, 2019, 12:42 a.m.
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Here's an interesting article on droughts:

Droughts: Things to Know

"Is it true most midwest droughts originate in the southeast? Yep, now I'm worried about drought"

I've heard that before bowyer but it's not true. Droughts start gradually over a region and get worse, while expanding(contracting).  When expanding, they can expand in any direction........including from the Southeast US, gradually into the Midwest.

It takes a long lived, repeating weather pattern that persists over many months for rainfall deficits to grow big enough for soil moisture to be depleted enough for drought.

In the Southeast US, we've had an upper level high pressure system that has dominated often enough in the last numerous months so that we've had a slight drought for several months in that location.

Interestingly, that persistent high pressure has acted to block systems to the west and direct them towards the Plains/Midwest from an active southern stream and pump backside moisture(from the Gulf) into them. If that high pressure system expands, then the drought will expand. If it stays there, then the heavy rains will continue in the mid section.

1993 was actually a year that was similar to this. The heat ridge in the Southeast DID expand and strengthen, with the drought spreading into the Ohio Valley, while keeping Pacific systems from progressing from west to east,  acting like a giant wall/block and pumping up deep moisture to its west.

Storms in 1993 from a powerful stream would track across the Midwest, and die out after they crossed the Mississippi River.

Here in Indiana, we had a very hot and dry Summer with drought like conditions on the western edge of the heat ridge, while 2 states to our west, they got a couple feet of rain.

With regards to expanding droughts, I think probably more of them expand from west to east. 2012 was a good example........after the S.Plains drought the prior 2 years (2010/2011) spread northeast into the Midwest.  

One reason this is more favorable is that weather systems tracking over bone dry soils are less likely to pick up moisture and storm clusters/rain systems more likely to dry up tracking over dry soils as they move from west to east.(the old drought begets drought expression)

Air masses that travel over soils in drought will have low level moisture/dew points much lower than those that travel over wet ground. The fact that the Midwest is so wet right now is going to make it much less likely for drought to develop this Summer. Weather system tracking over these wet soils are going to have more moisture to work with for quite some time.

But there can be exceptions. 1983 was a wet Spring thru much of June..............then a dome of high pressure moved in and stayed for much of July/August, into September with near record heat and very little rain.


By cliff-e - May 15, 2019, 7:03 a.m.
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The perils of planting in soil that's too wet.

We've seen this problem before most notably in 1993. And if we mud the crop in and if it does turn dry it's a guaranteed loss.

The Prevented planting option is still very much a viable alternative despite a rise in futures price and the potential tariff reparation (not assured yet) due to the trade war (squabble?).