CORN CYCLE May 2019
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Started by tjc - May 21, 2019, 12:57 p.m.

Update on Corn Cycle May 2019

   Daily and Weekly cycle low was set Monday May 13, 2019 at 335.5 by the May contract, which expired the next day.  The 13th was a 'nice' key reversal from Friday's down, but bounce off the low close.  Monday now appears to be a climax low based upon a stock market China reaction.

  Crop progress report was miserable, and corn rallied smartly on Tuesday the 14th and has rallied to 3.99 as of this posting.

   May 13, 2019  appears to be a midpoint low from the last 18 year low (came early) of 301 in August 2016.  (Previous 18 year cycle low was 174 in 2000).  Thus, one 'should' expect a rising market for some considerable time frame.

  May 13 was 24 weeks from the last weekly cycle (17-27).  Weeklys tend to have two  3-5 week rally timeframes followed by a 3-5 decline thereby fulfilling the 17-27 cycle.  THUS, one would presume Corn is now 'due' for a rally time period most likely 5 solid weeks.

  I anticipate the next daily low to be June 10 +/- several days.  Looking for a high June 17ish +/- a few days.

  Corn created a weekly gap on Monday May 20, which if measured from the 335.5 low suggests a move to the 435 level.  Continuous July contract shows 410 level resistance.  The Lead contract high in 2015 was 443 and in 2016 was 439.

  Other thoughts, ideas, or projections?

Comments
By metmike - May 21, 2019, 1:11 p.m.
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Thanks much for sharing tjc,

I'm monitoring the bullish weather and trading how that affects the grains and ng.........actually ng weather has turned bearish because the heat dome in the Southeast will be going away next week.

Latest, GFS was MUCH wetter but I'm actually expecting a drier pattern in week 2 as part of a pattern change, so am not interested in the long side after us going so much higher so fast and threatening an exhaustion in the buying based on wanting to fill last night gap higher.


Very frothy and volatile

December not wanting to sell off to fill the gap as nobody wants to be short the rapidly shrinking new crop. 


New highs or new lows would not surprise me in the last hour here.

It looks like volume today has been incredible!