INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 24, 2019, 7:59 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, May 24, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -2.0%; previous +2.7%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

 

                        

 



 

 

Monday, May 27, 2019   

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S.: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S: Jefferson Davis' Birthday holiday in Mississippi

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnightwith reports President Donald Trump may ease up on restrictions against Huawei Technologies Inc. as part of a bigger trade deal with China. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7580.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7580.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 7268.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36.  



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2879.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2879.82. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's strong gains. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 151-15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-04.



June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.036 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 125.070. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.036. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.242. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this week's sharp decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 55.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.29 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 63.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 57.97. Second support is March's low crossing at 55.80.  



July heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.91. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.81. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 194.63. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58. 



July unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 197.03. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 206.45. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 187.72. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82.



July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 2.551 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.713 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.640. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.713. First support is May's low crossing at 2.551. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.534.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.48 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.99.



The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.87 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.87. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.   



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 1.2591 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2927 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2783. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2927. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.2618. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2591.  



The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0093 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9906 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0013. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0093. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9906. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. 



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.72. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0898.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1292.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1267.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.



July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.706 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.706. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.016. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 14.350. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.



July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 276.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 276.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 285.46. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 265.45. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-November's high crossing at 4.03 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 3.84 3/4 would increase the odds that the gap was an exhaustion gap. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.99 1/2. Second resistance is last-November's high crossing at 4.03 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/2.  



July wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.49 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this month's rally, the 38% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 4.95. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.49 1/2.  



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 7-cents at 4.25 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 4.61 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.46 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.82.   



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.31 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8.48 1/4 are needed to renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.75 1/4 later this summer. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.75 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at 7.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.75.



July soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.40 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 293.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.40. Second resistance is the April 26th reaction high crossing at 309.90. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 293.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 283.10.   



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 26.21 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.33. First support is May's low crossing at 26.21. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $0.23 at $89.42. 



June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at 85.37 would renew the rally off April's high. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 93.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is May's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73. 



June cattle closed up $0.15 at 110.80. 



June cattle closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 111.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.32. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is  the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.43 at $143.03. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.59 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 145.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.48. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.38 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 24.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. 



July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - May 24, 2019, 12:43 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!