KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
9:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. March U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)
10:00 AM ET. May Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 129.2)
Expectation Idx (previous 103)
Present Situation Idx (previous 168.3)
10:30 AM ET. May Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 2.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 12.4)
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 425.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 263)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1334.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +8.3%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)
10:00 AM ET. May Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3)
Shipments Idx (previous -2)
10:00 AM ET. April Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7553.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7553.40. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 7268.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2873.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2873.84. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 154-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 152-00. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 154-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-07.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.065 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 125.105. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.065. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.257.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of last- week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes last-week's decline, March's low crossing at 55.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.30 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 63.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 57.97. Second support is March's low crossing at 55.80.
July heating oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends last-week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.75. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.81. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 194.63. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58.
July unleaded gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.86. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 206.45. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 187.72. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, May's low crossing at 2.551 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.707 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.634. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.707. First support is May's low crossing at 2.551. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.534.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.49 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.05.
The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.83 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 1.2591 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2914 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2757. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2914. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2618. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2591.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0084 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9913 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0013. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0084. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9913. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0898.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1291.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1267.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.683 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.683. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.998. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 14.350. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 275.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 285.06. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 265.45. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.19 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.86 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.31 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.88 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 1/2.
July wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 50% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.18 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 4.66 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.72 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.53 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 16 3/4-cents at 4.42.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 4.61 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.10 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.46 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.10 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.82.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.61. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8.48 1/4 are needed to renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.73 3/4 later this summer. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.73 3/4. First support is May's low crossing at 7.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.75.
July soybean meal gapped up and was higher overnight and is poised to resume the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.30 would open the door for a larger-degree rally. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 293.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.30. Second resistance is the April 26th reaction high crossing at 309.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 293.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 283.10.
July soybean oil was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.28 is the next upside target. If July extends last-week's decline, May's low crossing at 26.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.28. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is May's low crossing at 26.21. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $3.00 at $86.42.
June hogs closed limit down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at 85.37 would renew the rally off April's high. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 93.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is May's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73.
June cattle closed up $0.38 at 111.18.
June cattle closed higher on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 111.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.13. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.20 at $143.23.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 145.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.37 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, last-July's high crossing at 25.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!