KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 425.6)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 263)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1334.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +8.3%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)
10:00 AM ET. May Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3)
Shipments Idx (previous -2)
10:00 AM ET. April Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7522.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7522.07. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 7218.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2864.21 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2864.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 154-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-13 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 152-31. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 154-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-12.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.099 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 125.245. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.099. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.277.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was lower overnight and is poised to resume last-week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes last-week's decline, March's low crossing at 55.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 63.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 57.97. Second support is March's low crossing at 55.80.
July heating oil was lower overnight and poised to resume last-week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends last-week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.81. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 194.63. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.18. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 206.45. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 187.72. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.701 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.628. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.701. First support is May's low crossing at 2.551. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.534.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support islast-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.10.
The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.77 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.77. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 1.2591 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2893 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2728. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2893. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2618. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2591.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9916 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0078 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0013. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0078. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9916. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to breakout to the downside of the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.67. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at 73.99. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0898.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1291.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1267.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.645 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.645. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.973. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper was lower overnight and is poised to extend the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.31. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.53. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 265.45. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The latest planting progress report showed that only 58% of this year's corn crop has been planted compared with the 5-year average of 90% planted. This week's rain along with expectations for additional rain across large portions of the Midwest this week will continue to hamper planting efforts across the region this week. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level would also mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.45. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.96.
July wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 62% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.90 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 18 3/4-cents at 4.60 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.13 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.63 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.13 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.82.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.29 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.40 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.29 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans gapped up and was sharply higher overnight in response to Tuesday's bullish planting intentions report. The report showed little planting progress for soybeans was accomplished last week coming in at only 26%. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.73 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 in the near-future. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8.92 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 8.20. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 8.17.
July soybean meal gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 301.40 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 326.30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 301.40. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 293.10.
July soybean oil was sharply higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.24 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into June. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.24. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $2.45 at $83.97.
June hogs closed sharply lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.78 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08.
June cattle closed up $0.38 at 111.55.
June cattle closed higher on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 111.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.93. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.00 at $142.23.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.67 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 144.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.08. First support is May's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.36 opens the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 9.94. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, last-July's high crossing at 25.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.05 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks much tallpine!