KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 30, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1676000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +3.0%; previous +3.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +0.9%; previous +0.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -1.7%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +0.6%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +0.8%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +1.2%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. April Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 105.8)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +3.8%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -1.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (expected 1852B; previous 1753B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (expected +99B; previous +100B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 476.775M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.0M; previous +4.74M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 228.74M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.0M; previous +3.716M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 126.415M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +0.4M; previous +0.768M)
Refinery Usage (expected 90.9%; previous 89.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.661M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.184M)
1:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, May 31, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.9%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% previous +1.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 626.0K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 541.0K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 393.3K)
9:45 AM ET. May ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 53.0; previous 52.6)
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 101.0; previous 97.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.3)
3:00 PM ET. May Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7495.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7495.94. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 7183.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2857.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2857.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2650.94.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 154-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 153-05. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 154-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149-20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-16.
June T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.123 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 125.270. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.123. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.292.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes last-week's decline, March's low crossing at 55.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 63.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 57.97. Second support is March's low crossing at 55.80.
July heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range above the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 194.63. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 204.53. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.81. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 194.63. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.65 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.65. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 206.45. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 187.72. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.694 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.623. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.694. First support is May's low crossing at 2.551. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.534.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support islast-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.15.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.71 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.71. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 1.2591 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2869 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2703. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2869. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2618. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2591.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9918 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0074 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0013. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0074. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 73.85. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term are possible. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0898.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1267.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1290.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is May's low crossing at 1267.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.632 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.632. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.953. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 283.97. First support is the overnight low crossing at 264.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level would also mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.45. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.99 1/4.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.90 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 62% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.80 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.59 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 4.53 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat posted a downside reversal with Wednesday's lower close as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.16 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.32 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.16 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.72 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 in the near-future. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8.92 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 8.20. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 8.17.
July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 326.30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00. Second support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 301.40.
July soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.20 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into June. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.20. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $1.23 at $85.20.
June hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.64 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08.
June cattle closed up $0.80 at 112.35.
June cattle closed higher on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above 20-day moving average crossing at 111.52 confirmed that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.73. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.50 at $142.73.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.35 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 144.35. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is today's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's rally, March's high crossing at 10.36. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, last-July's high crossing at 25.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.81 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!