Corn peaked? I doubt it
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Started by tjc - May 30, 2019, 11:15 a.m.

  Hello, MarketForum

  I am of the opinion that this corn market has not yet peaked.

  Major weekly lows do not end in two weeks.  More likely 3-5 weeks.

  Will it be volatile?  You bet!

  435 lead low.  Weekly gap 405-407    Thus, add 70 to 407 =  477 measured price projection.

  First must clear 2016 439 high and the 2015 443 high (tomorrow?)

  MAJOR planting decisions to be made next week---June 5 for many.  IF, IF no rain until Tuesday, many here (nc Illinois) could go.  Rain this afternoon, Saturday, Sunday night.  Looking bleak.

  PP for millions of acres


By Jim_M - May 30, 2019, 1:10 p.m.
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I don't think we are even close to the peak.  I think we will be above $4.60 CZ, at a minimum, by the close tomorrow. Monday we will go even higher heading into the progress report.  $4.70-$4.80 by close on Monday?  Who would short going into that progress report???  

By metmike - May 30, 2019, 1:36 p.m.
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I agree.

Production is going to be too low for the price to stay down here.  We will need to get to a price that cuts demand.

We added quite a bit of rain in the wettest areas for next week with that system since yesterday.

By mcfarm - May 30, 2019, 3:10 p.m.
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we come in Monday at 67% planted and the peak way up from here

By bowyer - May 30, 2019, 9:51 p.m.
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Surely the big traders know how bad it really is ? I've never seen anything like this. What little that was planted is drowned out in ponds across the fields, and what isn't covered in water is turning yellow from the saturated soil. I know there are regional areas like this every year, but this covers a pretty vast area. It's almost June !!!

By metmike - May 31, 2019, 12:45 a.m.
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We added more rain n the 6-10 day period, which is when our next big system is coming,  just before the open tonight which gave us the pop to new highs in the corn but couldn't hold.

By metmike - May 31, 2019, 3:06 p.m.
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The 12z GFS ensembles took next weeks system farther south, so not as much rain in the waterlogged areas.

By metmike - May 31, 2019, 6:06 p.m.
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The 12 GFS ensemble had the 2 inch rain band  from next weeks big system around 200 miles farther south then previously. Also, the next 5 days will not feature heavy rains for the first time in weeks.

The 2 inch band from before was as far north as Chi town to Cleveland. On the 2nd, most recent map the 2 inch band only makes it up to the Ohio River. In fact, IA, far N.IL/IN and much of Ohio could miss completely.......but that is one model run from one model. 

 Even if we dried out right now and planted everything that can be planted for the rest of the month, its seems almost impossible to reach production levels that are high enough to keep prices this low. There  needs to be alot of freeze risk premium in these late planted crops too, especially the beans.

The studies for the state of IL show that corn planted on June 8th will average yields 66% of its early season yield and 50% if its planted between June 15-20. Why bother to plant corn then?  So this next rain in the middle of next week is HUGE. If its another soaker, it delays things another week and wipes out at least several million more acres of corn in the ECB that might have gotten planted/mudded in by producers willing to try for yields that, best case scenario could hit 80% of full potential.

I don't know the PP dynamics to judge but next weeks rains in the ECB will cause alot of firm decision making on that for those that are still waiting. It has been wet in the ECB but only a bit above average in IN and OH to the southern half of IL. These areas can dry out pretty quickly with this high angled sun and warm temps and plant quickly............if there was NO rain.

The area that has been devastated with 10+ inches of rain the last month and has a near zero chance of planting anything for at least 10 days,is from the N.1/3rd of OK, the E. half of KS across N. 20% of MO to S/SE. 20% of IA into the NW.20% of IL.  

A few spots in there have seen 20 inches of rain over the last month. The best hope that producers have to plant anything this year in those areas, I would think is on high ground and if we miss this next system and planting beans. 

By metmike - May 31, 2019, 6:11 p.m.
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How Late is Too Late for Corn and Soybean Planting?

This wonderful article was written on June 13th 2013(a previous wet year for Illinois)

It’s very late to plant or to replant corn, and for many with unplanted fields or with poor stands that may need to be replanted, the choice is whether it makes sense to plant corn this late, and if not, whether the best option is prevented-planting insurance or replacement with soybeans, as crop insurance provisions allow.

Table 2.3 in Chapter 2 of the Illinois Agronomy Handbook  indicates that we can expect a corn crop to yield about two-thirds of its expected (early-planted) maximum yield if the crop is planted on June 8 and has a full stand. That is a projection, since most of our corn planting date studies include planting only through the end of May. Based on this, however, we have projected that corn reaches the point where we can expect 50 percent of maximum yield if it is planted sometime between June 15 and June 20.

I reanalyzed our more recent planting date data, and if – this is a big "if" – we can accept projections of yield that go well past the last planting date, we would move the planting date from which we’d expect half a crop a little later, closer to the end of June. But we know that corn planted during or after the middle of June will produce fair to good yields in some years and very little yield in other years, depending on unpredictable weather that follows. Hence it makes sense to consider June 15 to 20 to be that last "practical" date on which to plant corn if we want to produce grain.

If we do plant corn in mid- to late June, planting a very early hybrid, having the option of harvesting the crop as silage if grain production looks unlikely, and getting good rainfall throughout the rest of the season will all improve the chances of ending up with a profitable crop. The chances of having enough frost-free days to grow a crop are higher in central and southern Illinois than farther north, but higher water loss rates and lower water-holding capacity of soils can cancel this advantage. It may also be difficult to get seed of very early hybrids, and because early hybrids are not developed for the central and southern Corn Belt, there is no guarantee that they will do well under late planting.

If it’s too late to plant corn and we don’t expect enough yield to make a profit (or at least to make more than crop insurance would pay to plant nothing), does it make sense to plant soybeans instead? We have run our soybean planting date studies into the first or second week of June, but we still have to project expected yields past the last date we actually planted.

Going through the same exercise as we did for corn, we would expect soybeans planted at the end of June or early in July to yield half what they would if planted early. This is about two weeks later than the normal doublecrop planting date in southern Illinois. Doublecrop soybeans have averaged 72 percent of full-season soybean yields over the past 10 years at Brownstown, so using early July as the 50-percent-of-maximum-yield planting date seems reasonable.

We know that doublecrop (or very late-planted) soybean yields can range from zero to good, and there’s no way to predict when they are planted which end of this range they’ll be on. As many found out in 2012, planting into bone-dry soils is not usually conducive to high doublecrop soybean yields. And in northern and central Illinois, doublecrop soybeans or soybean planted (or replanted) in late June or early July have had a considerably lower rate of success than doublecrop soybeans in southern Illinois.

By Jim_M - May 31, 2019, 7:12 p.m.
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I think commodities in general took a beating today because of Trumps proclamation of tariffs against Mexico.  Ruined my prediction of CZ closing above 360.  

By mcfarm - May 31, 2019, 8:45 p.m.
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jim, weather is king and mother nature is in control....we got 7/10th last nite right out of no where....actually wetter right now than all place for water to go. Now 60% for Saturday, the Wed, thurs, Friday. Do not see that minor tariff adventure standing against this never ending weather. Also come Monday I do not see planting progress going above 65%

By silverspiker - May 31, 2019, 11:28 p.m.
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Image may contain: 1 person, smiling, meme, text that says 'WHEN SOMEONE TRIES TO HURT YOUR FEELINGS BUT YOU DON'T HAVE ANY'


By wglassfo - June 1, 2019, 9:12 a.m.
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We have not planted any corn in ideal conditions

If the planter tractor can spin its way through a wet spot we plant

I have seen zero dust this spring except one day on hill tops

We are currently planting and I see planter tractor ruts

Going around standing water

If it is close to dry we plant where we can plant the most in between rain

We have planted in rain soaked sand ground

Not very efffecient but it is June !st and we do not have PP

Bean ground planting will start this week

60% chance of rain today

We will plant today until it rains

Might be more beans than intended on our ground

We still have a lot of corn to plant

Will keep planting until end of week

Then hope for a decent summer

We know our yields will suffer when you rut the field planting

We can row our 1st planted corn which is all sweet corn

No commercial corn emerged for us

A small % locally has emerged [maybe 2%] and needs heat and no rain

Radar looks quiet so far but the 60% chance has not changed

By Jim_M - June 1, 2019, 5:25 p.m.
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I agree mcfarm, but for 1 day, traders can get bent out of shape over tariffs, especially since Mexico imports a lot of corn.  Monday, I think we are off to the races again.  

By metmike - June 1, 2019, 6:11 p.m.
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You are probably right Jim!

A couple of things to watch here. Storms this afternoon. Watches up now.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook

A couple of dry days................then, the trade will be focusing on this next BIG...HUGE to the market system.

It's going to move very slowly. It will start on Monday in the Plains, with rain into MO on Tuesday. As a cutoff low it will take, to possibly Sunday before the affects exit the Eastern Cornbelt.  The northern extent of  significant rains could be a sharp cut off line and this will make a difference between almost no rain to the north and a couple of inches of rain to the south....possibly 4+ inches farther south.

If this cutoff line is up near Chi Town, it extraordinarily bullish because all the water logged places get a couple of inches of rain. If the cutoff line is at the Ohio River, 300+ miles farther south, then the water logged areas have a week of drying............which is bearish. Both those scenarios are in play. 

Historically, these southern stream systems seem to track a bit farther south than the models forecast but it would be a big mistake to use that as any indicator as each system is different and there are plenty of solutions that take it right across the Ohio Valley which would mean days of rains in the wettest spots. 

That would add another week before planting is possible, so  after June 15th. I don't know why a farmer would plant any corn then. Just take the insurance or plant beans. 


Are you going to use the insurance this year? What are your plans? How late will you plant beans? 

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By mcfarm - June 1, 2019, 6:59 p.m.
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Plans are up in the air. Only real coverage is getting the crop planted and that has always happened here...this year is epic. The PP option is not really an option  for me. Too many rented acres and too many landlords. Combine that with fighting weeds all summer and cover crop seeding in awful conditions and Prevent planting is not something I will do unless forced. Will plant corn even after the June 5th cutoff and sacrifice some coverage at 1%/dy. PP seems to be  better option that late beans at current prices ...and bean prices may be under more pressure with more bean acres because of the weather.  This market has been slow to react because there have been some "little boy crying wolf" deals that never hurt yields.......this year is epic, this is not a misprint. This is my 55th year of actually running the corn planter and nobody has seen anything like this year. Friend just drove from Chicago to Indy and from Indy to eastern Ohio and counted 2 planters moving and not 1  planted field from Lafayette to Indy on some of the finest soils on this earth. Well drained, flat and black and not one planted.

By metmike - June 1, 2019, 8:05 p.m.
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Thanks mcfarm,

A report like that from a guy with 55 years of experience means everything. 

Yes, this is epic but the areas that you described are not even the wettest. When did you plant in 1995?

I'll copy them here again because this really is epic:

"The area that has been devastated with 10+ inches of rain the last month and has a near zero chance of planting anything for at least 10 days,is from the N.1/3rd of OK, the E. half of KS across N. 20% of MO to S/SE. 20% of IA into the NW.20% of IL.  

A few spots in there have seen 20 inches of rain over the last month. The best hope that producers have to plant anything this year in those areas, I would think is on high ground and if we miss this next system and planting beans."

So this huge rain coming up, if it takes the current path is going to make it even more epic. Could 10 million acres of corn not get planted this year? Wow, that's pretty hard to fathom but if this huge rain dumps in the ECB, on the areas that actually have a chance to plant a lot of corn real fast, then it could be worse than that.

One can only guess how high corn prices might go. What if we only have a 10 billion bushel crop? And with demand of 14 billion bushels? Even with stocks of 2 billion, the only way for the math to add up is with prices soaring high enough to cut over 2 billion in demand. These prices are not high enough. We will have to look at world supplies and ethanol and many other things to make things work.............and only higher prices can do it. 

Could corn go back to $8?  Worst case scenario, that can't be ruled out. 

Todd's Take                                                                                           

Estimating Ending Corn Stocks, Prices

With regards to beans, I don't think they will be under pressure anymore from expected switches from corn to beans even with record supplies of beans and SA now producing more beans then we do. The ratio now is 2 to 1 and out of whack. If corn went to $6, it seems impossible that beans would stay under $10. 

If corn goes to $6, you'll also have wheat used for feeding(if W prices stayed low) and these heavy rains are going to hurt the Winter Wheat crop too. The crop condition of the wheat, in 2 weeks(after next weeks rains) will have plunged from where it was a couple of weeks ago. 

So this weeks huge rains...where they fall  will be the most important rain event for.............the past decade at least, maybe in history. 

By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 2:13 a.m.
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dude.... if I am a farmer... I would belly up at least a thought of an over - a -bundance of ....

SELLING @ 4= 32 OF N = JULY CORN....



By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 2:15 a.m.
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... STILL A SELLER OF N - JULY @ 4=32 ..

By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 2:17 a.m.
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... BIRTHDAY OF FIRST "SPACE WALK" gemini ... 54


By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 2:31 a.m.
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dude... last year.... CORN  @ 10:57 A.M. cst   MAy 30...

 ... when throwing aunt joyces ashes in ...

dude ... reverse michael jordons toungue upside down seltzer  to relieve the phlegm dunk ...

... sell corn with the mississippi mudders sellin out therir bins and dumpin river basis... on that high day last year as WEll....


By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 2:43 a.m.
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By silverspiker - June 3, 2019, 2:47 a.m.
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.... perishable good 

By silverspiker - June 5, 2019, 2:39 p.m.
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nobody got this joke about corn gapping higher after the close on monday ....hhhmmmm.....wonder why ???



No photo description available.

....risk to reward ..... (*get it ? *)

.... get me "HIGHER" baby .....

By metmike - June 5, 2019, 2:49 p.m.
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Great call SS!

Reworded the text to make better sense: Turns out that the big rain event for waterlogged Eastern Cornbelt late this week started shifting farther  south a couple of days ago and kept going farther south on each model run.

So the market was hit with the max bullish news on Monday evening with the slowest planting progress in history.......and still some rains coming with this event late in the week.........but they were already diminishing.

That event hasn't started yet but  the rains will be falling on top of the drought in the Southeast where they are welcome rains and missing the ECB, where they will appreciate the drying and are planting like gangbusters this week............catching up but still the latest ever and alot of acres will never get planted.

So this will NOT be a record yielding year with 99% confidence for corn or beans, even with the increase in beneficial CO2. 

I suppose that perfect weather could get beans a bit above trend yields but that one seems almost impossible for corn. 

By Jim_M - June 5, 2019, 4:47 p.m.
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POURING right now in NE Ohio.  

By silverspiker - June 5, 2019, 5:41 p.m.
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sold 4-32

By tjc - June 11, 2019, 12:54 p.m.
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DAILY cycle low was yesterday!

Since you have NOT boasted about covering your SHORT 432, I must assume you are almost wrong, having allowed profits to erode.

I appreciate detailed, non-boastful posts attempting to share of information rather than your outbursts and what some might complain as personal attacks.

By metmike - June 11, 2019, 1:40 p.m.
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Let's just concentrate on our own trading and accept what others prefer to share with open arms...............we have no rules about posting trades.