KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 31, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.9%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% previous +1.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.0%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 626.0K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 541.0K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 393.3K)
9:45 AM ET. May ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 53.0; previous 52.6)
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 101.0; previous 97.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 87.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.3%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.3)
3:00 PM ET. May Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as it extended the decline off April's high. The overnight sell off was triggered after President Donald Trump made a surprise announcement to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, and amid reports China may be readying fresh retaliatory moves against the U.S. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7467.31 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7467.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7641.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 7134.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7103.16.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2849.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2849.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2892.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2650.94.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 154-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 154-10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 154-27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-21.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.177 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 126.110. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.177. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.312.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 52.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.89 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 63.96. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 55.32. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 52.66.
July heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.37. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.81. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 188.58. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.52.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.59. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 206.45. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 182.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.48.
July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the February-2019 low crossing at 2.510 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.685 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.620. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.685. First support is April's low crossing at 2.534. Second support is the February-2019 low crossing at 2.510.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support islast-Thursday's low crossing at 97.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.19.
The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.64 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was lower overnight and spiked below January's low crossing at 1.2591 as it extends this year's decline. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the October-2019 low crossing at 1.2412 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2845 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2678. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2845. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2581. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2412.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9924 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0074 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0013. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0074. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9924. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this spring's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at 73.74. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0922 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0922. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0929. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0906. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0898.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1290.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1267.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is May's low crossing at 1267.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.630 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.630. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.933. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.88 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 272.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 283.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at 263.00. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level would also mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.05 3/4. Second support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 62% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.90 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.63 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 25 3/4-cents at 4.79.
July Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.20 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.20 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.47. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 8.92 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4. Second support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 8.20.
July soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00. Second support is Tuesday's gap crossing at 301.40.
July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.16 would open the door for a larger-degree rally into June. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.16. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $1.53 at $83.67.
June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08.
June cattle closed down $2.28 at 110.08.
June cattle closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. Closes above today's high crossing at 113.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.47. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.
August Feeder cattle closed down $4.50 at $138.23.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 143.80 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 143.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is today's low crossing at 138.22. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 10.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, last-July's high crossing at 25.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.35 is the next upside target. If July renews this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!