We will open sharply higher.
Should be a gap higher in corn and probably beans also gap higher. BUT will we hold the gaps with planting going strong in the ECB right now?
Monday Weather: No extreme heat. Huge rain system this week. How far north will the rains go? Latest has it shifting south.
Tuesday Weather: No extreme heat......yet. Huge rain system continues to track farther south than earlier forecasts. Less rain in wet areas, more rain in dry areas.
Wednesday Weather: No extreme heat. Huge rains system still tracking south.........wet for driest places, less rain for wettest places.
Thursday Weather: No extreme heat. Huge rains still tracking to driest places and missing the wettest places.
Friday Weather: No extreme heat. Huge rains still tracking to driest places and missing the wettest places. Same bearish forecast for the 4th day in a row.
Saturday Weather: Even a bit cooler. Rains hitting drought areas this weekend, planting continues to catch up. Benign forecast, possible heavy rains returning late week 2.
Sunday Weather: Not as cool late week 2. Big rains returning late week 1.
Monday Weather: Warming starting later this week and continuing into week 2. Rains return at the end of this week.
U.S. Crop Progress expectations for June 2. The five-year planting average for
#corn on this date is 96%. 71% would be slowest on record (next: 1995 77%, 1982 85%) Five-year average for #soybeans is 79%. 42% would be second slowest (1995 40%) #plant19
Corn 67% planted lower than expected
Beans 39%......this was also on the low end of guesses.
On June 2, U.S. farmers still had 82 million acres of
#corn and #soybeans to plant. That dwarfs 2nd place: 54 million in 1995. Only 2 other years still had 40+ mln left on June 2. 2019 breakdown: ~31 mln left on corn & ~52 mln beans. My guess is not all of those will be planted.
Only 67% of U.S.
#corn was planted as of June 2, well below the five-year average of 96%. That is +9 points on the week and below the trade guess of 71%. The planting pace has been RECORD slow for 2.5 weeks now. #plant19
#Corn planting, June 2 (5yr avg) by state:
llinois 45% (98%)
Indiana 31% (94%)
Ohio 33% (90%)
Iowa 80% (99%)
Minnesota 76% (98%)
Nebraska 88% (98%)
S Dakota 44% (96%)
Michigan 42% (87%)
Missouri 69% (97%)
Wisconsin 58% (91%)
N Dakota 81% (93%)
Kansas 79% (93%)
As of June 2, only 46% of the U.S.
#corn crop had emerged versus a five-year average of 84%. That is BY FAR the slowest on record.
Here are the next slowest on June 2 (records to 1999):
2) 2011 73%
3) 2013 74%
4) 2002 75%
5) 2008 76%
#Corn emergence by state, June 2 (5yr avg):
Illinois 32% (91%)
Indiana 18% (80%)
Ohio 18% (73%)
S Dakota 13% (80%)
N Dakota 27% (68%)
Iowa 58% (91%)
Minnesota 48% (87%)
Nebraska 67% (88%)
Michigan 17% (63%)
Wisconsin 28% (72%)
Missouri 59% (93%)
Kansas 60% (81%)
#Soybeans planting progress, June 2 (5yr avg) by state:
Illinois 21% (84%)
Indiana 17% (80%)
Ohio 18% (76%)
Iowa 41% (89%)
Minnesota 51% (90%)
Nebraska 64% (87%)
Missouri 18% (63%)
S Dak 14% (82%)
N Dak 70% (83%)
Wisconsin 34% (78%)
Kansas 26% (53%)
Michigan 31% (73%)
Only 19% of U.S.
#soybeans had emerged by June 2, easily the slowest in records since 1999. Average is 56% and last week was 11%. Last year was 65%. Here's the next few slowest:
2) 2013 31%
3) 2008 35%
4) 2011 37%
5) 2002 39%
6) 2003 41%
How has late planting historically affected yield (if at all)? Here is U.S. planting progress on June 2 versus the final deviation from trend yield for the past 30 years.
From earlier: "We will open sharply higher.
Should be a gap higher in corn and probably beans also gap higher. BUT will we hold the gaps with planting going strong in the ECB right now?"
Top of the gap for corn is CN 430.75 and for beans SN 886.25. Those were the highs on Monday. We opened several cents higher than the highs from Monday this evening and the lows of this evening above the highs on Monday are what we call the gap.
A gap like that which stays open is a bullish breakaway gap. But tonight, we have to ask what additional bullish news will there be that is even MORE bullish than everything that got us this high?
The planting delay news has peaked and so have the excessive rains.
Trading below those levels is a gap and crap, buying exhaustion formation. Where, the panic type buying at the market..........hitting the offers runs out of steam and runs out of buyers.........until the price drops low enough to attract more buying at levels during the previous session.
We just filled the gap higher in SN.
Now the question is if we have enough buying near the highs of the previous session to keep us from dropping any more.
So CN held its gap higher by 1 tick (430.75 to 431.00) and SN dropped a couple of cents below the gap but found some buying there.
Thu wx updated
Simply amazing; past 12 months the wettest on record for the Nation and EASILY the wettest on record for the Corn Belt. Precipitation 8.53" above normal for 1902/03 in the Corn Belt simply PALES in comparison to our most recent 12 month period...an incredible 13.88" above normal
Corn and wheat sales were actually reductions from cancellations.
Beans were good.
Karen Braun Retweeted Karen Braun
FYI this was the first weekly net cancellation for U.S.
#corn since August 2015.
metmike: Look at the range of guesses in corn ending stocks for next weeks USDA report. WOW! This is the biggest spread in the guesses in history. If the report comes in near the low end..........it's limit up and then some. Near the high end.............limit down and then some. My guess is that it will be closer to the low end.
Big range in beans but with the low end still huge.
No as much spread in wheat.
The rains have finally missed us a couple of times. Started planting late last Sunday(wet) and have planted every day since. Glad to get it in the ground, but it's very late. Usually around here, by the end of June, whole fields are fully tasseled. Might be a foot tall then this year
Congrats on finally finishing!
Knee high by 4th of July! Yep that's 2019!
Finished last night with beans.
Finished June 4th with corn. Well over 50% not emerged here, and 25 % only 2-3 inches tall
I think we can start assuming a full 10% smaller corn crop. Anyone want to go for 20%?
Yes, the market traded -10% back in May when we were at $4 and was considering -20% last Monday Night when we spiked to the highs.
Export inspections just out:
U.S. Crop Progress expectations, June 9. Wide range on expected
#corn conditions, but the average guess is 54% good-to-excellent. Corn planting is seen advancing 16 points on the week, planting for #soybeans seen up 17 points. Spring #wheat conditions likely to remain high.