INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 5, 2019, 7:33 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 


Wednesday, June 5, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 411.5)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.3%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 259.4)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1255.4)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -6.0%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +170000; previous +275000)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 53.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 55.0; previous 55.5)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 55.7)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 53.7)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 58.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 476.493M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.282M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.944M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous 2.204M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 124.8M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.615M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.2%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.458M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.797M

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. May Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 52.7)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7374.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7238.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7374.02. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6623.56.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2830.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2830.54. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2892.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2650.94.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 155-22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 152-26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-00.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.002 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 127.025. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125.239. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.002. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.42 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 56.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.42. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 52.66. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69.  



July heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.24. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 169.59. 



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 184.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 190.62. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94.



July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.590 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.590. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.654. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.381. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 96.81 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target.First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is May's low crossing at 96.81. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.



The June Euro was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 113.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.04 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 113.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is May's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.   



The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2780 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, the October-2019 low crossing at 1.2412 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2780. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2967. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2568. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2412.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 1.0191 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9960 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.0143. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9960. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rebound off last-Friday's low, April's high crossing at 75.45 is a potential upside target.If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 74.93. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 75.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 73.74. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0929 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.905.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 1361.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1297.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1344.80. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1361.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1297.70. Second support is May's low crossing at 1273.20.



July silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.889 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during June.If July resumes the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.889. Second resistance is the April 26th reaction high crossing at 15.120. First support is May's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.



July copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 270.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 270.57. Second resistance is the May 16th reaction high crossing at 277.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 261.10. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight despite Monday's bullish planting progress report as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level would mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.15 1/2. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 4.04 3/4.    



July wheat was lower overnight following Tuesday's key reversal down.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.73 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.96 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.73 3/4.  



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 18 1/4-cents at 4.68 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.31 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.55 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.31 1/4.  



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.52 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8.94 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 8.58 1/4. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 8.20.



July soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. If July extends the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 314.00. Second support is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 301.40.     



July soybean oil was steady to slightly low in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.06 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.06. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is the reaction low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $0.45 at $81.12. 



June hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.71 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is today's low crossing at 80.85. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 79.08. 



June cattle closed up $0.78 at 107.55. 



June cattle closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the April-2018 low crossing at 104.78 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 113.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.51. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37. Second support is the April-2018 low crossing at 104.78.

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $3.95 at $137.45. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.07 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 142.07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 132.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at 11.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



July cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, last-July's high crossing at 25.84 is the next upside target.            



July sugar closed higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.31 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 12.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



July cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.97 is the next upside target. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - June 5, 2019, 11:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

More favorable weather continues for the grains.