INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 12, 2019, 8:01 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, June 12, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 417.8)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 253.1)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.4%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1335.6)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May CPI

 



 

 

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.9%)

 



 

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.9%; previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 483.264M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.771M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.149M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.205M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous +9.372M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.572M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.8%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.449M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.009M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. May Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight ahead of U.S. inflation report signaling a possible end to a six-day rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7545.93 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7303.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7545.93. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 7641.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6623.56.



The June S&P 500 was lower overnight due to profit taking following Tuesday's downside reversal. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 2957.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2829.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2911.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 10-day moving average crossing at 2829.33. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends a two-week trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 155-22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 153-17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-12.



June T-notes were higher overnight while extending a two-week old trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.199 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside targets.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 127.080. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 126.065. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125.199. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was lower overnight suggesting that the short covering rebound off June's low has ended. Rising inventories were the main factor in the overnight sell off and will likely keep pressure on the market during the day session. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 54.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.21. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 47.00.  



July heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 169.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 181.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.15. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 169.59. 



July unleaded gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 174.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.38. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94.



July Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.516 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.405. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.516. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.305. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 96.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.43. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. First support is April's low crossing at 96.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 96.00.



The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 113.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.30. Second support is May's low crossing at 111.26.    



The June British Pound was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2709 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off May's high, the October-2019 low crossing at 1.2412 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2709. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2921. First support is May's low crossing at 1.2568. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2412.  



The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends a two-week trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 1.0191 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0006 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0159. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0191. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0006. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9906. 



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 75.64 is a potential upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 75.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 75.64. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.57. Second support is May's low crossing at 73.74.  



The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.905.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1307.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 1361.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1352.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1361.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1328.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1307.60.



July silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.619 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 15.400 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 15.150. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 15.400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.619. Second support is May's low crossing at 14.265. 



July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.85. Second resistance is the May 16th reaction high crossing at 277.75. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally, which was inspired by yesterday's friendly WASDE report where the government cut planted corn acres, lower yield expectations and cut ending stocks. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, last-May's high crossing at 4.45 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level would mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. Closes below the May 28th gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4.38. Second resistance is last-May's high crossing at 4.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 1/2. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 4.04 3/4.    



July wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.92 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.92 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.66 1/2.  



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 1/2-cents at 4.57 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.29 1/4.  



July Minneapolis wheat was steady overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.50 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.50 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.34 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.52 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 8.94 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.52 1/4. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 8.20.



July soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.40 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 309.40. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 301.40.     



July soybean oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.89 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.89. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is the reaction low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21. 



Comments
By metmike - June 12, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks very much tallpine!


Watching the effect of upcoming heavy rains on bean planting today.