Corn Price Projection
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Started by tjc - June 14, 2019, 10:12 a.m.

 Corn has exceeded its high of new weekly cycle's first advance high of 438.

  

The weekly gap created May 27 measures 62 cent rally plus 407 low or 469 based upon July contract; 69.5 plus 407 or 476.5 based upon lead contract.

The lead corn price high in the last 5 years is 470.5

The first rally went from 335.5 to 438.  Market retraced to 407.  Equal leg suggests 509.5.

Looking for a near term peak perhaps Monday near 470

Comments
By mcfarmer - June 14, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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Thanks for that, I’m not much of one for charts, just not that interested.


I did let the second one third of 2018 corn go today.


Corn here in NW Iowa is all over the place. Some very good but behind and some I’m in doubt will make a crop. Of course summer and fall will play the last cards.


Mike ? Any projections as to first freeze dates ?

By metmike - June 14, 2019, 3:08 p.m.
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By Jim_M - June 14, 2019, 4:51 p.m.
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By metmike - June 14, 2019, 6:33 p.m.
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Thanks Jim


This particular statement in that article was very odd and showed the author didn't understand what the farmers were saying as there was no explanation and he referred to it as "soaked corn".


"What’s more, several farmers said that even once the soaked corn is harvested, they’re going to incur costs associated with having to dry it out."


What they probably said was that late planted corn will mature later will and have higher moisture levels in September vs it drying out nicely in September and ready to harvest.  If Sept and Oct are warm and dry, things will be just fine and the corn will dry out in the field.

Or if we have a hot Summer, it will accelerate growth and it can catch up by a couple of weeks. 

A very cool Summer will cause the opposite to happen.


Ideal moisture content of the corn varies but  less than 25% is pretty good by most standards


Harvest timing should be determined in each field by monitoring grain moisture content, stalk quality, and ear quality.


http://www.channel.com/agronomics/Pages/Grain-Drydown-and-Timely-Harvest-Decisions.aspx


The ideal harvest moisture content for corn is between 22 to 25 percent. Corn drydown is linked to growing degree units (GDUs). Under ideal weather conditions, corn may lose up to one point of moisture per day. As the days get cooler, GDU accumulation per day decreases and grain drying slows. As a rule of thumb, 30 GDUs per moisture content point are required to lower the grain moisture content from 30 to 25 percent and 45 GDUs per point are required from 25 to 20 percent.1 This means that late-maturing fields may take two to three times longer to dry in the field.


Waiting for corn grain to dry to 18 percent moisture content in the field can certainly save on the energy bill, but it also increases the likelihood of excess harvest losses due to stalk lodging, ear drop, and detrimental weather, all of which can affect your bottom line.

By mcfarmer - June 14, 2019, 11:41 p.m.
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Never seen GDUs associated with dry down. I always thought  once corn silks GDUs are irrevalent. 

Sun and low humidity along with a nice breeze are what dry down needs. Cool temps during grain fill make for good test weight.


The market doesn’t care about how much we have to dry. I don’t start harvest until the grain gets below 20% as a rule. I use air to dry, try not to use gas.


This year most of my corn was below 100 day maturity, 105 is considered full season here.

By cliff-e - June 15, 2019, 7:06 a.m.
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I'm reading on the web of cash corn getting close to $5 handle in Ohio...meanwhile in in W.Mn. we're still just above $4. Hmmm.

By cutworm - June 15, 2019, 7:30 a.m.
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Cliffe cash corn .35 over  or 4.88 at cardinal eth. In just a little over a month basis went from -.20 to plus .35

By cutworm - June 15, 2019, 7:32 a.m.
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a tremendous amount of corn not planted here

By Jim_M - June 15, 2019, 9:01 p.m.
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Cutworm, where are you located?

By buck1400 - June 15, 2019, 11:31 p.m.
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Basis went to + 0.40 this week at Cooper Farms in Ft Recovery, OH.  All those birds and pigs got to eat.

By metmike - June 16, 2019, 1:23 a.m.
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Cutworm is in far Southeast IN, around 25 miles? northwest of Cincinnati I think.

By Jim_M - June 16, 2019, 10:16 a.m.
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Thanks Mike.  Just a heads up to everyone else.  I try to put my location anytime I am talking about local conditions.  I don't expect you to remember where I live.  If you think about it, it would be great if you did the same thing.  When crops are growing, there are a lot of people posting here that we don't see all that often.  I remember where some of you are, but not everyone.