After making some money and getting out, coffee has been kind enough to come back down to maybe let us in for another go at it.
No chance for a frost/freeze the next 2 weeks Jim.
Thanks for the heads up Mike. I was going to wait until it breaks a trend line, but you make a good point.
Here we are of one mind again, surprisingly. Friday dumped all my wheats and bought coffee and cocoa. Wheat harvest pressure may crush price while coffee has attractively corrected the initial impulse appropriately. And cocoa is on a tear (hopefully not my tears!) And not tear my account in half!
Besides Jimmay's got the HOT HAND and that is the stuff of legends. Watch, frost in the forecast may suddenly appear!
Still no sign of frost looking at maps that go out 2 weeks you guys.
In the distant past, when coffee country was farther from the equator and before beneficial
global warming/climate change and there was a higher risk for freezing temperatures to do damage to the crop in their Winter, prices would rally in Apr/May to dial in frost risk premium, then drop ahead of and during the harvest in Jul/Aug.
Prices have crashed over the last year and have not been following any sort of seasonal trend.
| Date Posted & Author | |
|---|---|
Coffee |
Coffee charts going back 10 years:
1 Year Below
| |
| |
Drought in Brazil in 2014 caused a spike
Drought in Brazil and bad weather globally in 2010 caused the 2011 spike
| |
Note at this link below, that coffee prices dipped below 50c in late 2001 and the first half of 2002!
So coffee can still go much lower!
https://www.macrotrends.net/2535/coffee-prices-historical-chart-data
History of frosts/freezes and droughts in Brazil thru 2000.
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frost.htm
http://www.coffeeresearch.org/market/frosthistory.htm
| Date | Severity (Damage) | Coffee Frost or Drought |
| 1902 (Late July/early August) | Devastating | F* |
| 1918 (June 24-26) | Severe | F* |
| 1942 (Late June/early July) | Severe | F* |
| 1943 | Moderate | F* |
| 1953 (July 4-5) | Severe | F* |
| 1955 (July 30-August 1) | Severe | slight F |
| 1957 | Severe | F* |
| 1962 (July 25-26) | Minor | F* |
| 1963 (August 5-6) | Moderate | F and D |
| 1965 | Minor | F* |
| 1966 (August 6) | Severe | slight F |
| 1967 (June 8) | Minor | F* |
| 1969 (July 9-10) | Moderate | F* |
| 1972 (July 8-9) | Moderate | F* |
| 1975 (July 17-19) | Very Severe | F* |
| 1978 (August 13-16) | Moderate | F* |
| 1979 (June 1) | Moderate | F* |
| 1981 (July 20-22) | Severe | F* |
| 1984 (August 25) | Minor | F* |
| 1985 (August-November) | Minor | D |
| 1988 | Minor | F* |
| 1994 (June 25-26 and July 9-10) | Severe/Very Severe | F and D |
| 1999 (August to November) | Severe (40% crop lost) | D |
| 2000 (July 17) | Moderate (est) | F* |
* In most cases frost or drought was not indicated by the source. Although only F is written in these cases it is likely a combination of the two forces that caused devastation to the coffee crop.
2 week temperatures in Brazil show no chance of frost. Above normal.
Good stuff....thanks Mike
YW Jim,
Still no sign of a freeze for coffee country here on June 16th!
"Looks" to me we spend another week lower to sideways, testing the lows 3 weeks back. IF lows then hold, perhaps worth re-entry.
Here's a perfect example of how a centered trader had an innate feel of a market, a familiarity of its peculiar behavior. Mr Jim gently announced his keen perception that opportunity presented itself again in a recognizable context. And rather than be open to his delicate insight, a barrage of boilerplate balderdash buffeted Jim's effervescence and even caused him to question his soul feelings. We must strive to extract ourselves from the rigor mortis of reflex denials of wispy ethereal wisdom in the wind. Easy to fall into an "erectile dysfunction" of trading depression.