KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, June 17, 2019
8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 17.8)
Employment Idx (previous 4.7)
New Orders Idx (previous 9.7)
Prices Received (previous 12.4)
10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 66)
4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.4%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. May New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.235M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +5.7%)
Building Permits (expected 1.30M; previous 1.296M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.5M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7569.69 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7371.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7569.69. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 7903.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7371.98. Second support is June's low crossing at 6969.00.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 2955.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2843.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2915.00. Second resistance is April''s high crossing at 2955.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2843.36. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 155-22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 153-17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-05.
June T-notes were lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside targets.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.101 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 127.210. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 126.155. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.101.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.74 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 54.99. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.74. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 47.20.
August heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 170.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.56. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 176.92. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 170.91.
August unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 158.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 173.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.77. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 166.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 158.39.
August Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.476 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.413. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.476. First support is June's low crossing at 2.305. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, May's low crossing at 97.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 97.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.92. First support is May's low crossing at 95.89. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.
The September Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends last-week's decline, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 114.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the overnight low crossing at 112.85. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.58.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.2821 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2821. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2944. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2624. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0103 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 1.0275 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0242. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0275. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0048. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0006.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Last-Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.76 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 73.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.7507 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.62. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 75.75. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 74.63. Second support is May's low crossing at 73.94.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.917.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1323.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1362.20. Second resistance is the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1323.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1315.10.
July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 15.400 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.150. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 15.400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.660. Second support is May's low crossing at 14.265.
July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.26. Second resistance is the May 16th reaction high crossing at 277.75. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off May's low. The corn market is continuing to come to grip with last week's bullish WASDE report. The sharp cut in carryout and lower planted acreage continues to reverberate throughout the market. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-May's high crossing at 4.45 would mark an upside breakout of a 5-year trading range on the monthly charts. Closes below the May 28th gap crossing at 4.04 3/4 would signal that a top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.64 1/4. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.20. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 4.04 3/4.
July wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.70 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 8-cents at 4.76 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.30 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 9.13 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 8.20.
July soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.50 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.50. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 301.40.
July soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at 28.23 would renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 28.23. Second resistance is the April 30th reaction high crossing at 28.32. First support is the reaction low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $2.03 at $81.35.
July hogs closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.03 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.03. First support is today's low crossing at 80.60. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58.
August cattle closed down $0.45 at 104.28.
August cattle closed lower on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 109.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.48. First support is June's low crossing at 102.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.70 at $135.53.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.64 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 139.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is June's low crossing at 132.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.45 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.29 is the next upside target.
July cocoa closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the May-2018 high crossing at 28.32 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed unchanged on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.62 is the next upside target. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.