KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.4%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
8:30 AM ET. May New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.24M; previous 1.235M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +5.7%)
Building Permits (expected 1.30M; previous 1.296M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.9M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.5M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
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The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past five-day trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 7570.74 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If June extends the rally off this month's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7374.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7570.74. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7374.60. Second support is June's low crossing at 6969.00.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it extended the trading range above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2881.43. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 2955.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2843.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2915.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2955.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2843.24. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,992.46. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 25,695.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,635.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 26,248.67. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 26,695.96. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,204.24.
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September T-bonds closed up 7/32's at 154-18.
September T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it extends a three-week old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the early-June high crossing at 155-22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 153-17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-17.
September T-notes closed down 5-pts. At 127.100.
September T-notes closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 127.260 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.105 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 127.210. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 127.260. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.105. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.272.
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July crude oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 54.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.57. First support is June's low crossing at 50.60. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69.
July heating oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 169.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 183.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.67. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 169.59.
July unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 176.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.72. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94.
July Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.472 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.406. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.472. First support is June's low crossing at 2.305. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168.
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The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, May's high crossing at 98.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.52 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is June's low crossing at 95.89. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Monday but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.37. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.38. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 114.71. First support is May's low crossing at 112.12. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.91.
The September British Pound closed lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the the reaction high crossing at 1.2821 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2821. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2943. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2586. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0103 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.9993 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0154 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0242. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0275. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0083. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9993.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.76 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 73.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.07 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.62. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 75.75. First support is June's low crossing at 73.94. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 73.47.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0925 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0936 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0936. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0925. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0916.
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August gold closed lower on Monday following last-Friday's downside reversal thereby hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1315.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1362.20. Second resistance is the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1323.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1315.30.
July silver closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 15.400 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.150. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 15.400. First support is May's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 277.79. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.
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July Corn closed up 1 1/2-cents at 4.54 1/2.
July corn closed closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. A late-day sell off tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above last-May's high crossing at 4.45 confirmed last-Friday's upside breakout of the 5-year old trading range on the monthly continuation chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. If July extends this upside breakout of the monthly trading range, monthly resistance crossing at 5.15 is the next potential upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.64 1/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.29 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/2.
July wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 5.39.
July wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.04 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.04 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 4.75 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.31 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down 3-cents at 5.60 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.32.
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July soybeans closed up 13 1/4-cents at 9.10.
July soybeans gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 9.20 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.14. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 9.20 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/4. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 8.31 1/2.
July soybean meal closed up $0.10 at 323.60.
July soybean meal closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 306.80.
July soybean oil closed up 54-pts. at 28.15.
July soybean oil closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 28.23 would open the door for a larger-degree rally during June. Closes below the reaction low crossing at crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 28.26. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 29.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
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July hogs closed up $1.70 at $83.05.
July hogs closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.53 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.53. First support is today's low crossing at 80.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58.
August cattle closed up $1.35 at 105.62.
August cattle closed higher on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. If August renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 109.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.23. First support is June's low crossing at 102.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.40 at $136.93.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 139.21. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is June's low crossing at 132.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
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July coffee closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.45 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.29 is the next upside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the May-2018 high crossing at 28.32 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.92 is the next upside target.