Natural gas Wednesday
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Started by metmike - May 9, 2018, 7:04 p.m.


      EIA Raises Natural Gas Price Forecast Slightly, Says April Injections Lowest Since 1983. 

This was from one of the coldest Aprils in history for the high population centers of the Midwest and East Coast. 

Tiny chart below but the blue/top line is the Henry Hub price and the bottom, brown line is the storage number compared to the 5 year average.  Normally, one would have expected the blue line to be going in the opposite direction as the brown one. Storage plunging should have caused much higher prices but there are massive supplies in the pipeline surging in, just temporarily suppressed by the record cold April.........and the market is looking ahead!

Joe K used to say that why they call it futures and not pastures (-:


By metmike - May 9, 2018, 7:06 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Stable Ahead of EIA Storage Data; Mild Weather Limits Spot Price Moves

     6:24 PM    

Natural gas futures traded near even Wednesday as the market opted to stay put ahead of the release of government storage data expected to show a ramp up in injections. Shoulder season weather continued to limit spot market action across most regions, though prices fell in constrained West Texas and across much of the West.

the NGI National Spot Gas Average fell 3 cents to $2.32.

By metmike - May 9, 2018, 7:11 p.m.
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The weather pattern, to me was almost the same but not quite as hot in the extended because of it cooling in the Midwest, so it should have been a slightly bearish influence......if anything.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
By metmike - May 9, 2018, 7:16 p.m.
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                By metmike - May 8, 2018, 11:02 a.m.            


After getting a better handle on the massive supply hitting the natural gas market. The 900 bcf deficit to last year in storage does not look so bullish to me anymore. 

If we have an extra 5.9 bcf in supply this year and 2.0 is soaked up from demand, then we will have an increase of 3.9 bcf  in injections vs 2017, multiply that out thru 184 days of injections and you gain 717 bcf on last year and are almost caught up before next Winter, with an assumption that the massive supply will continue after that.

Additionally, the Rover Pipeline is expected to ramp up the Marcellus/Utica shale capacity by 1.5 bcf in the coming with a mild Summer, we could actually end the season with more natural gas in storage than the previous year!!