June 18th......time ticks by faster and faster!!! Do something to make somebody feel lucky today! Then, after observing the positive results, make a good habit out of it!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
Rain chances continue as expected this week but big pattern change looks even more likely in week 2 now.
Heat ridge builds much farther west, around the Rockies/Plains. This will cause the heavy rains to ease up in the wet spots and shift the location of rain chances much farther northwest as we close out June...continuing into early July.
This will shift the heat much farther west too. This pattern is much different than anything that we've seen for a very long time.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Hot West but it's going to heat up in the South too. Still cool Central Plains to Upper Midwest to Northeast.
Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades.
Highs for days 3-7:
Cool Northwest to N.Plains, also the Northeast. Very warm elsewhere.
Cool Northwest 1/3rd. Very warm Southeast/South to Mid Atlantic.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Meandering front will be the focus for more rains. Rains not as heavy as recent rains.
That area will move around so the same spots don't get bombed.
New pattern will start developing late week 1 as the upper level ridging builds in the Plains and kick in with effects during week 2. This is completely different than anything we've seen for a very long time and it should help the soggy areas to dry out.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
More rain events this week but the pattern will change in week 2. Rains will let up in the wettest areas and shift northwest.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily
Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall threat............moving around the next several days.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Slight risk for severe storms, higher in the S.Plains today.
Slight risk this week continues to move around but no outbreaks because the jet stream is too weak and there is no extreme temperature contrast like we had in May.
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Current Dew Points
Decent Moisture in place.
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
The Cornbelt HAD BEEN drying out and planting did some big catching up.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
East/Southeast Cornbelt very wet again.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm/hot) in the Southeast though which has some drought. There was some nice drought relief recently the first map updated June 13, shows that, compared to the previous map below it.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market will be STILL be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next 2 weeks.Mainly the beans now will be getting planted.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Monday: Strong zonal flow on the mean below in the northern half of the country. Will a heat ridge build south of that(southern 1/3rd)? This model, contrasting to the others actually looks cooler at the end of week 2 with a deeper trough in the East.
Tuesday: More heat ridge building in the Plains on this model today.
Wednesday: More heat ridge building in the center of the country again today.
Thursday: Heat ridge farther west and more troughing East Coast, so cooler.
Friday: Significant heat ridge building in the center of the country, favored locations include the S.Plains to points just southeast of that.
Saturday: The heat ridge building continues. How far north will the potential "dome" extend?
Sunday: I've actually waited fot this 12z model run below for the update. It shows the building upper level ridging in week 2..........weakening greatly in the Midwest at the end of week 2. Trough out West and strong jet stream over the top of the heat ridge means more rains, some potentially heavy.
Monday: computer down. Maps below not updated but the heat ridge today is extremely impressive from the s.rockies to the s.plains to possibly the w.gulf states.
Tuesday: Wide spread with best agreement on the Upper level trough off the West Coast and Upper level ridge around the S.Plains.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 03, 2019 12 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Monday: Best chance for a heat ridge is in the deep South. A good case can still be made for below temps in the northern 1/3 to 1/2. The temperature contrast and decent jet stream in between gives high confidence above normal rain signal.
Tuesday: Also more heat ridge building.......location, location, location ???
Wednesday: Wide spread on where to put the heat ridge.
Thursday: Big heat ridge, favored spot in the South to S.Rockies.
Friday: Big heat ridge again but farther east today into the Plains and potentially farther east.and more bullish for heat/ng.
Saturday: Where will the heat ridge/dome of rain suppressing upper level high pressure be?
Sunday: Where will the heat ridge be? On this model, possible cool intrusion sneaking into the Northeast.
Monday: huge dome from Rockies to plains to w.gulf states. This would cause rains to ease up and shift the heat.
Tuesday: Heat ridge continues to look farther west on this model late week 2..............S.Rockies area, maybe S.Plains.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Thursday: Positive anomaly in the N.Plains has weakened. Negative anomaly along the West Coast. Great uncertainty but not as dry overall vs the last few days.
Friday: Weak positive anomaly in the center of the country.........stronger at higher latitudes(Canada). Weak negative anomaly along the West Coast, stronger one in Southeast Canada which mean cool in the Northeast.
Saturday: The decent negative anomaly in Southeast Canada has filled in..........so that takes out the northern stream component and makes this high confidence for warmer than average. Negative anomaly along the West Coast is now more significant. This will help to modulate the jet streams location and determine where down stream ridging might be, along with the new zone for rains setting up around the periphery of the potential ridge.
Sunday: A bit of a negative anomaly againt in Southeast Canada might bring cooler air to the Northeast and middle of the country. The rest of the US has had previous anomalies filled in.
Monday: Slight negative anomalies in Southeast Canada, if they grow would be a source of cool air. Negative anomaly along the southern West Coast could steer wet weather and a jet stream towards the Plains.
Tuesday: Huge positive anomaly today in N/C Canada (and smaller one off the Pacific NW) is actually favorable for cooler air below it into the central and Northeastern US.
Wednesday: Notable/strong positive anomaly in Canada with a modest one in Southeast Canada will likely be a source of northern stream cool air. Another modest negative anomaly from the Southwest US towards the C.Plains(with a trough along the southern West Coast........oh,oh, this could represent the makings of more heavy rains..IF another heat ridge builds in the Southeast.
Thursday: Big positive anomaly in N.Canada back to Siberia. Modest negative anomaly Midwest to Northeast and off the Pacific Northwest coast. Favorable for cool in the middle to Northeast and wet.
The 12z run was WARMER!
Friday: Still the positive anomaly in N.Canada and around the Gulf of Alaska/Northeast Pacific. and a modest negative anomaly, one from the northern stream in Southeast Canada(cool air link?) another in the Southwest from the southern stream(potential for rains returning?)
Saturday: Northern stream positive anomaly north Canada to Alaska to Northeast Pacific connects downstream to negative anomaly that has shifted farther southwest into the US today.......N.Plains/Upper Midwest to Southeast Canada...................so a cooler solution.
Sunday. Weaker positive anomaly from NW Canada to the Northeast Pacific. Another slight positive anomaly in the deep south, then an elongated, lengthy west to east negative anomaly in between going from the Southwest across the entire country to the East Coast. That will be associated with the storm track and jet stream.
Monday: The high latitude anomaly is washing out a bit more but still connects with delivering cooler air downstream. Positive anomaly in the deep south supports upper level ridging. Elongated negative anomaly across the northern 1/3rd will be associated with our jet stream and storm track.......and wet weather, which will also feature cool temperatures.
Tuesday: Negative anomaly sealed off in the Pac Northwest today with upper level heights rising downstream...........ridge building, so we are warmer in the central US(not as cool as recently) and to the south. Weak negative anomaly MidAtlantic, so maybe some cool forcing.
Wednesday: Strong positive anomaly NW Canada to NE Pacific. Growing positive anomaly in the Plains.
Thursday: Growing anomaly from yesterday with a center in the N.Plains to Upper Midwest looks interesting. Could lead to warmer/drier in that region??
Friday: The new positive anomaly in the North/Central US is more than interesting now. Shifted slightly farther east today and advertising some potential heat.
Saturday: Center of new anomaly has shifted slightly south today. This will be associated with the new heat ridge/potential dome in week 2.
Sunday: Positive anomaly shifted slightly west. Pretty stout positive anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska.
Monday: positive anomaly today is south of the Gulf of Alaska and connected to the positive anomaly farther east as heat ridge builds from the Rockies and Plains. This is potentially a much drier pattern for the later periods and shifts the heat westward.
Tuesday: Weak positive anomaly in the Rockies with weak negative anomaly in the Southeast. This is much different than recent patterns which would be drier and feature the heat much farther west than it has been. Upper level ridging in the Southeast and and South has been an important link to recent excessive rains that travel around the periphery and feed off the very warm, humid air it pumps up. If that goes away..........so do the heavy rains.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Saturday: Negative AO, especially negative NAO(means high confidence cool signal) and near 0 PNA.
Sunday: Pretty big changes. AO climbs back to near 0. NAO much higher than previous days and climbs towards zero at the end of the period. For sure this SUGGESTS that the cold forcing from the northern stream will be subsiding. PNA is solidly positive.
Monday: AO and NAO near zero(from recent negative that was connected to cool temps-so no longer a cool influence). PNA is positive, still a cool influence for the Midwest and East.
Tuesday: All close enough to 0 to not be huge. However, recently they were favorable for cool temps and this means that influence will be easing...........which suggests warmer at the least.
Wednesday: All near zero.
Thursday: Close enough to zero to not be significant here.
Friday: A0 and NAO close to zero but a negative PNA is favorable for a heat ridge to be building downstream from an upper level trough off the West Coast...........in the middle of the country.
Saturday: AO and NAO close to zero and PNA a bit negative late in week 2 so this is not a deterent for heat ridge building during week 2.
Sunday: All close to zero, PNA a tad negative during week 2.
Tuesday: All just below or close to zero. Nothing big, although the PNA is fluctuating in week 2 with the potential pattern change.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/top
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Heat shifting west, heavy rains easing up/shifting as week 2 progresses.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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Heavy rain threat shifts with the new pattern in week 2. 
Potential for excessive heat in week 2. 
