KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 529.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +26.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 278.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +10.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1956.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +46.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 485.47M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.206M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.913M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.764M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 128.372M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.0M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.123M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.674M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 3.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate – 2018
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 2.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 2.6%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 2.6%)
Thursday, June 20, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 262.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 531.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 1564.3K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 222K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1695000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 9.3; previous 16.6)
Prices Paid (previous 23.1)
Employment (previous 18.2)
New Orders (previous 11.0)
Prices Received (previous 17.5)
Delivery Times (previous 3.4)
Inventories (previous -3.1)
Shipments (previous 27.6)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -122.0B; previous -134.38B)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.2%)
Leading Index (previous 112.1)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2088B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday renewing the rally off June's low. Stock indexes were sharply higher after President Donald Trump tweeted that had a productive conversation with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. If June extends the rally off this month's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7387.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7721.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7387.18. Second support is June's low crossing at 6969.00.
The September S&P 500 gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 2955.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2843.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2930.50. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2955.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2843.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 2737.00.
The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally, April's high crossing at 25,695.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,675.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 26,527.19. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 26,695.96. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,204.24.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 14/32's at 155-02.
September T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high high crossing at 155-30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 152-27. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 153-17.
September T-notes closed up 55-pts. At 127.160.
September T-notes closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.150 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 127.290. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.150. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.294.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as progress toward a trade deal eases demand worries.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins.0 Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 54.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.12. First support is June's low crossing at 50.60. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.69.
July heating oil closed higher on Tuesday while extending this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 169.59 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 184.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.48. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 175.75. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 169.59.
July unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 176.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179.42. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 168.15. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 159.94.
July Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.453 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.453. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.575. First support is June's low crossing at 2.305. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off this month's low, May's high crossing at 98.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.58 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is June's low crossing at 95.89. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.
The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.52 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.38. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 114.71. First support is May's low crossing at 112.12. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.91.
The September British Pound closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the the reaction high crossing at 1.2821 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2821. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2933. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2556. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.9993 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0144 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0242. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0275. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0069. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9993.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 73.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.07 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.62. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 75.75. First support is June's low crossing at 73.94. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 73.47.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0926 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0936 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0936. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0926. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0917.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1318.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1362.20. Second resistance is the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1323.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1318.60.
July silver closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 15.400 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.687 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.150. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 15.400. First support is May's low crossing at 14.265. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 266.27 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 277.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 284.85. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed down 6-cents at 4.48 3/4.
July corn closed closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Consolidation above broken trading range resistance crossing at 4.45 is possible before renewed the recent breakout above the 5-year old trading range on the monthly continuation chart. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. If July extends this upside breakout of the monthly trading range, monthly resistance crossing at 5.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.22 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.64 1/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.22 1/2.
July wheat closed down 8 1/2-cents at 5.31.
July wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.20 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 10 1/4-cents at 4.65 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down 8-cents at 5.52 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/2 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed down 3/4-cents at 9.12.
July soybeans closed fractionally lower on Tuesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 9.38 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.67 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 9.21 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.38 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.67 1/4. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 8.31 1/2.
July soybean meal closed down $3.20 at 321.10.
July soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 307.00.
July soybean oil closed up 20-pts. at 28.34.
July soybean oil closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 28.23 opens the door for a larger-degree rally during June. Closes below the reaction low crossing at crossing at 26.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 28.54. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 29.72. First support is the reaction low crossing at crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.58 at $81.48.
July hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.96 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.96. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58.
August cattle closed down $0.08 at 105.55.
August cattle closed lower on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 109.40 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 107.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.99. First support is June's low crossing at 102.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.33 at $137.25.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.84 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 138.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is June's low crossing at 132.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.44 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.29 is the next upside target.
July cocoa gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the May-2018 high crossing at 28.32 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.65 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!