KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 529.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +26.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 278.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +10.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1956.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +46.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 485.47M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.206M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.913M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.764M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 128.372M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.0M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.123M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.674M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 3.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate – 2018
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 2.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 2.6%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 2.6%)
Thursday, June 20, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 262.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 531.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 1564.3K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 222K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1695000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +2K)
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 9.3; previous 16.6)
Prices Paid (previous 23.1)
Employment (previous 18.2)
New Orders (previous 11.0)
Prices Received (previous 17.5)
Delivery Times (previous 3.4)
Inventories (previous -3.1)
Shipments (previous 27.6)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -122.0B; previous -134.38B)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.2%)
Leading Index (previous 112.1)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2088B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +102B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7396.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 7721.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.750. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7396.24. Second support is June's low crossing at 6969.00.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 2955.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2849.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2932.00. Second resistance is April''s high crossing at 2955.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2882.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2849.96.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of Tuesday's gains. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-05 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 155-30. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153-05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 149-20.
September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.196 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 127.290. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.195. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 125.160.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.84 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.94. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 49.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 47.20.
August heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 170.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 199.62. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 176.92. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 170.91.
August unleaded gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 158.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 173.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 175.08. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 166.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 158.39.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.168 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.438 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.413. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.438. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.300. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.168.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 97.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.92. First support is June's low crossing at 95.89. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.38. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 114.70. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2715 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off May's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.2821. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2922. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2556. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0046 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 1.0275 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0242. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0275. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0046. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0006.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 73.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.7510 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.62. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 75.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 74.57. Second support is May's low crossing at 73.94.
The September Japanese Yen was mostly steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0936. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0927. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.917.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1322.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1362.20. Second resistance is the April-2018 high crossing at 1405.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1323.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1322.00.
July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 15.400 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.713 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.150. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 15.400. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.713. Second support is May's low crossing at 14.265.
July copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends Tuesday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 276.92 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off April's high, January's low crossing at 256.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 276.92. Second resistance is the May 6 reaction high crossing at 284.85. First support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 261.76. Second support is January's low crossing at 256.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top or pause in this spring's rally is possible. I am looking for July to consolidate above broken trading range resistance crossing at 4.45 near-term. However, closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.25 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.64 1/4. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.25 1/4. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 4.04 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.09 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 4.87 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 10 1/4-cents at 4.65 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.58 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.97. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.41 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.32.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.62 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.90 1/2. First support is the June 5th reaction low crossing at 5.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.36 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 9.38 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.71 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 9.21 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.38 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.83 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.71 1/2.
July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 331.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 328.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 331.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.80. Second support is the May 28th gap crossing at 301.40.
July soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 28.54. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91. First support is the reaction low crossing at 26.74. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.21.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed down $1.58 at $81.48.
July hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.96 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.96. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 78.58.
August cattle closed down $0.08 at 105.55.
August cattle closed lower on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 109.40 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 107.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 109.99. First support is June's low crossing at 102.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.33 at $137.25.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.84 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 138.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is June's low crossing at 132.15. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.44 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.29 is the next upside target.
July cocoa gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the May-2018 high crossing at 28.32 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 71.65 is the next upside target.