our new drier and warmer forecast
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Started by mcfarm - June 20, 2019, 11:05 a.m.
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By metmike - June 20, 2019, 4:42 p.m.
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mcfarm, the new pattern doesn't start until later next week.   What you show is the forecast for the next week. 

By mcfarm - June 20, 2019, 6:59 p.m.
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MM, believing a warmer and drier forecast now would be like believing elywin taylors "drought" forecast for the last 20 years running. Neither is worth reading. Heck, at this point a 2 day forecast is dangerous at best.

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 8:39 p.m.
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And the new pattern won't be completely dry..........it will feature the upper level ridge shifting to the Northern Plains, where there will be heat for the first time this year(instead of it being very cool) and there could still be some southeast moving storm clusters that make it down into the Eastern Cornbelt with more average type rains vs the very wet weather from recently. 


What's interesting is that the first half of June was actually in the top driest for that period.........before we turned wet again. If not for that and all the planting that happened because of it, this disaster would be feature millions of additional acres never planted this year. 

                By metmike - June 15, 2019, 11:57 a.m.            

            

    Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg 4              

                                         

To be completely honest...probably one of the top 25 driest starts to June on record for the Corn Belt as a whole

                                                 

 

By mcfarm - June 20, 2019, 9:29 p.m.
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one of the few things more difficult than weather forecasting in today's world would be the hardest feat in modern sports....squaring up a 95mph fastball with a baseball bat

By cliff-e - June 20, 2019, 9:58 p.m.
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NOAA WAS saying warmer and drier for July after a cooler June  but are now saying cooler and wetter for July and the board rallied on this today. It's like '93 all over again.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11 p.m.
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Thanks cliff,

I don't remember anything but cool and wet for the middle of the country coming up from the NWS recently. Their reasoning is the wet soils which greatly increases chances of wet/cool during the Summer months.


This was the June forecast below............July looks similar.........no surprise. 

                By metmike - May 19, 2019, 1:06 p.m.            

CPC's monthly outlook for June 2019 shows cool in the Plains and wet there into the Western Corn Belt.

                                                     

 

               

 


The July forecast, just updated today is below, just a slight shift east in the wet/cool because the wettest weather the last week has been farther east than the wettest weather was last month :


OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: June 20, 2019
 
 30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 21, 2019, 1:16 a.m.
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Actually, the biggest change in the forecast was not the continuation of an expectation of more cool and wet down the road but the huge pattern change coming up next week that will bring the first intense heat of the season to the Upper Midwest and N.Plains.

This would be for the last several days in June until around the 4th of July. This is a pattern that we've not yet seen in 2019 as the coolest temperatures vs average on the planet this year have been in the N.Plains.


Potential for excessive heat in week 2.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png