Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:35 a.m.

June 20th......time ticks by faster and faster!!!   Do something to make somebody feel lucky today!  Then, after observing the positive results,  make a good habit out of it!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.   


 Rain chances continue as expected this week but with a big pattern in week 2 still but rains in week 2 have been boosted a bit today. Not excessive but above average still in many places.

Heat ridge builds much farther west, around the Rockies/Plains.  

This will shift the heat much farther west too. This pattern is much different than anything that we've seen for a very long time.



Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   

 


 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





US Weather Current Temperatures Map




      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!

Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:39 a.m.
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Hot in the south, cool north.


Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades. 



   

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Cool Northwest to N.Plains.  Very warm to hot elsewhere.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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Cool Northwest/West  to N.Plains.  Very warm to hot eastern half.  


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:43 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Meandering front will be the focus for more rains. Rains not as heavy as recent rains.

That area will move around so the same spots don't get bombed.

New pattern will start developing late week 1 as the upper level ridging builds in the Plains and kicks in with effects during week 2. This is completely different than anything we've seen for a very long time and it should help to ease the intensity of the rains. 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:45 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


More rain events this week but the pattern will change in week 2. Rains will let up in the wettest areas in week 2. Not looking completely dry but the rains will shift to a different location and not be as heavy.

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126








http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:46 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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Slight risk of Excessive Rainfall  today ...........moving around the next several days. Returning to the saturated soils of the Eastern Cornbelt on Friday.


   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

 

 

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:50 a.m.
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Slight risk of severe storms this week continues to move around but no outbreaks because the jet stream is too weak and there is no extreme temperature contrast like we had in May.  

       

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       
By metmike - June 20, 2019, 11:51 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

 Decent Moisture in place.



Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

East/Southeast Cornbelt is saturated!!!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 2:59 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


East/Southeast Cornbelt very wet again. 

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#


      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Changehttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:26 p.m.
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Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm/hot) in the Southeast though which has some drought.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market will be STILL be  keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next 2 weeks.Mainly the beans now will be getting planted.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

     

     

Drought Monitor for conus

  •                                                                                   

                                        


By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:30 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:


Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!


Last Monday:  Strong zonal flow on the mean below in the northern half of the country. Will a heat ridge build south of that(southern 1/3rd)? This model, contrasting to the others actually looks cooler at the end of week 2 with a deeper trough in the East.

Tuesday: More heat ridge building in the Plains on this model today.

Wednesday: More heat ridge building in the center of the country again today.

Thursday: Heat ridge farther west and more troughing East Coast, so cooler.

Friday: Significant heat ridge building in the center of the country, favored locations include the S.Plains to points just southeast of that. 

Saturday: The heat ridge building continues. How far north will the potential "dome" extend?

Sunday: I've actually waited fot this 12z model run below for the update. It shows the building upper level ridging in week 2..........weakening greatly in the Midwest at the end of week 2.  Trough out West and strong jet stream over the top of the heat ridge means more rains, some potentially heavy. 

Monday: computer down. Maps below not updated but the heat ridge today is extremely impressive from the s.rockies to the s.plains to possibly the w.gulf states.

Tuesday: Wide spread with best agreement on the Upper level trough off the West Coast and Upper level ridge around the S.Plains.

Wednesday: This model is much deeper with the magnitude of the upper level trough along the West Coast and has the Upper Level Ridge downstream much farther east. This particular solution would be wetter in the middle and hotter farther east than some of the other models.......but we have a wide spread and uncertainty.

Thursday: Trough along or just off the West Coast, upper level ridge downstream around the Rockies/Plains. Much warmer midsection than anything we've seen in a long time. Heavy rains easing up.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 05, 2019 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:33 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:


Last Monday: Best chance for a heat ridge is in the deep South. A good case can still be made for below temps in the northern 1/3 to 1/2.  The temperature contrast and decent jet stream in between gives high confidence above normal rain signal.  

Tuesday: Also more heat ridge building.......location, location, location ???

Wednesday: Wide spread on where to put the heat ridge.

Thursday: Big heat ridge, favored spot in the South to S.Rockies.

Friday: Big heat ridge again but farther east today into the Plains and potentially farther east.and more bullish for heat/ng.

Saturday: Where will the heat ridge/dome of rain suppressing upper level high pressure be?

Sunday: Where will the heat ridge be?  On this model, possible cool intrusion sneaking into the Northeast.

Monday: huge dome from Rockies to plains to w.gulf states. This would cause rains to ease up and shift the heat.

Tuesday: Heat ridge continues to look farther west on this model late week 2..............S.Rockies area, maybe S.Plains.

Wednesday: More ridging Rockies to N.Plains and some troughing in the East would shift the heat west and dry things out in the soggy midsection.

Thursday: Upper level ridge, Plains to Rockies. Much warmer in this area. Not as wet in the Midwest.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:36 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.


Last Tuesday: Negative anomaly sealed off in the Pac Northwest today with upper level heights rising downstream...........ridge building, so we are warmer in the central US(not as cool as recently) and to the south. Weak negative anomaly MidAtlantic, so maybe some  cool forcing. 

Wednesday: Strong positive anomaly NW Canada to NE Pacific. Growing positive anomaly in the Plains.

Thursday: Growing anomaly from yesterday with a center in the N.Plains to Upper Midwest looks interesting. Could lead to warmer/drier in that region??

Friday: The new positive anomaly in the North/Central US is more than interesting now. Shifted slightly farther east today and advertising some potential heat. 

Saturday: Center of new anomaly has shifted slightly south today. This will be associated with the new heat ridge/potential dome in week 2. 

Sunday: Positive anomaly shifted slightly west. Pretty stout positive anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska. 

Monday: positive anomaly today is south of the Gulf of Alaska and connected to the positive anomaly farther east as heat ridge builds from the Rockies and Plains. This is potentially a much drier pattern for the later periods and shifts the heat westward.

Tuesday: Weak positive anomaly in the Rockies with weak negative anomaly in the Southeast. This is much different than recent patterns which would be drier and feature the heat much farther west than it has been. Upper level ridging in the Southeast and and South has been an important link to recent excessive rains that travel around the periphery and feed off the very warm, humid air it pumps up. If that goes away..........so do the heavy rains. 

Wednesday: Large area with a weak positive anomaly northwest 2/3rds and weak negative anomoly Southeast suggests heat backing westward and things drying out using the same reasoning as yesterday. 

Thursday: Modest positive anomolies across much of central and western North America. very weak negative in the southeast. Favorable for widespread warmth and not as wet. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:39 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.


Last Thursday: Close enough to zero to not be significant here. 

Friday: A0 and NAO close to zero but a negative PNA is favorable for a heat ridge to be building downstream from an upper level trough off the West Coast...........in the middle of the country. 

Saturday: AO and NAO close to zero and PNA a bit negative late in week 2 so this is not a deterent for heat ridge building during week 2. 

Sunday: All close to zero, PNA a tad negative during week 2.

Tuesday: All just below or close to zero. Nothing big, although the PNA is fluctuating in week 2 with the potential pattern change. 

Wednesday: All just below zero and not telling us much. 

Thursday: NAO and AO both below zero by a bit. PNA gyrating wildly on either side of zero.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/top

                                    

                                    


By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:42 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


Tues: Heat shifting west, heavy rains easing up/shifting as week 2 progresses. 

Wed: Pattern change continues for this period. Heat shifting west to the middle of the country........heavy rains ease up/drying out. 

Thursday: Same pattern change. Heat shifts west into the Plains. Heavy rains ease up but there is still some rain. 


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

                                    


By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:43 p.m.
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Heavy rain threat ends with the new pattern in week 2.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

                                    


         

Potential for excessive heat in week 2.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png