Overnight Guidance Mostly Unchanged Ahead of EIA Storage; June Natural Gas Called Lower
8:53 AM
June natural gas was set to open Thursday about 1.8 cents lower at around $2.719/MMBtu, with small adjustments in the overnight weather data leaving the market to turn its attention to the upcoming release of weekly government storage data.
EIA report out at 9:30am.
Here is the one from last week. We'll test the graph below to see if the forum can handle it:
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (04/27/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 04/27/18 | 04/20/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 223 | 205 | 18 | 18 | 322 | -30.7 | 324 | -31.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 221 | 211 | 10 | 10 | 517 | -57.3 | 381 | -42.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 86 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 152 | -43.4 | 126 | -31.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 187 | 177 | 10 | 10 | 232 | -19.4 | 240 | -22.1 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 626 | 604 | 22 | 22 | 1,023 | -38.8 | 807 | -22.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 190 | 182 | 8 | 8 | 328 | -42.1 | 242 | -21.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 436 | 421 | 15 | 15 | 695 | -37.3 | 565 | -22.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 1,343 | 1,281 | 62 | 62 | 2,246 | -40.2 | 1,877 | -28.4 | |||||||||||||||||
OK, looks like it bleeds over into the green. Needs some work.............that's why I'm here.
Our web page guy, Chris Nellis is the best. Never told him we were having problems this year........which is why they were not getting fixed.
Here is the link:
Huge resistance in NGM is 2.773
A breakout if we stay above that or the storage report is bullish
Also this weeks highs.
Currently on the highs at 2.769.......
Resistance in ng held where it needed to on a test earlier.
If the EIA storage report is bullish and we are still below those highs, of 2.772, we will blow thru that in 1 second. Seriously, 1 second.
If its bearish, the highs will hold, bearish enough and we could drop below 2.700 which is huge support.
Neutral and we may trade between those prices.
Thats what makes having a position at 9:30am on Thursdays very dangerous.
+89 bcf on the storage report a few minutes ago. We did spike thru resistance but with ng, false break outs thru support/resistance are common.
If we hold above 2.77, then its for real.
Heat coming ahead which will cause the late May injections to be a bit skinnier than without the heat.
Next weeks EIA should be a big one though.
Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (05/04/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Region | 05/04/18 | 04/27/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
East | 243 | 223 | 20 | 20 | 346 | -29.8 | 347 | -30.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Midwest | 240 | 221 | 19 | 19 | 523 | -54.1 | 398 | -39.7 | |||||||||||||||||
Mountain | 92 | 86 | 6 | 6 | 155 | -40.6 | 127 | -27.6 | |||||||||||||||||
Pacific | 195 | 187 | 8 | 8 | 237 | -17.7 | 246 | -20.7 | |||||||||||||||||
South Central | 662 | 626 | 36 | 36 | 1,033 | -35.9 | 832 | -20.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Salt | 204 | 190 | 14 | 14 | 331 | -38.4 | 252 | -19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Nonsalt | 458 | 436 | 22 | 22 | 701 | -34.7 | 580 | -21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Total | 1,432 | 1,343 | 89 | 89 | 2,295 | -37.6 | 1,952 | -26.6 | |||||||||||||||||
Some natural gas storage operators have reported net withdrawals from base gas, beginning with the week ending April 6, 2018. The cumulative net withdrawals of base gas were treated as negative working gas stocks and are reflected in the working gas inventories. As a result, a small portion of this week's reported net change may include flows from base gas. |
June Natural Gas Gets a Jolt as EIA Storage Build Leaner Than Expected
Had no idea what was expected but it must have been more than +89 bcf.
NG price approaching the downtrend channel of the topside of the big triangle going back the Jan highs.
It held the uptrend channel from the bottom of the triangle earlier this week.
Potential upside break out........
Leaner-Than-Expected EIA Storage Sparks Natural Gas Futures Rally; Cash Falls Out West May 10 2018 A bullish miss in Thursday’s Energy Information Administration | |
No matter what size I put in for the graph is still comes out massive. This is a test to see how it effects text below the massive graph.
Today's +89: bullish to market but bearish vs longterm imo.
Based on the long term, this (+89 on 61 HDD and 11 CDD) wasn't bullish. There have been a number of weeks of past years with injections about 20 bcf lower with ~60-62 HDD. Those tended to be during bullish periods. Today's +89 wasn't unprecedentedly bearish, but it was at the 2014-2015 level of bearishness. In other words, prepare for some 100+ injections, possibly well above 100 next week, before it gets hot enough to reduce them.
With today's solid upward gain, there might have been a whisper # that was much higher. The WSJ mean was only 2 higher at 91.