Potential Trade resolution gooses equities.
7 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - June 26, 2019, 6:06 a.m.

"Dow futures up 118 points to 26,679 after Treasury Sec. Mnuchin says China trade deal 90% done"

In a lead up to G20?  Could be a good few days for equities. Assuming we're not disappointed.

I'll breath a sigh of relief if/when a viable deal is reached.  I'm seeing the tariff issue as a (potential) necessary evil, but it goes against my fundamental grain. Problem is,  I don't have an alternative to the situation. And it appears that neither do even the most vocal of critics.

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By 7475 - June 26, 2019, 7:02 a.m.
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Yeah Tim

 This certainly appears to have the potential of being an exception to "my rules". Trade wars mostly are lose/lose long run I would say.

The beauty here is that the tariffs are not being used to make an inferior product,lets say,more competitive,but instead they are being used to make unbalanced trade rules more fair. Big difference I think. Kudos to Trump for that bit of vision.

 Hope I explained that clearly. Along the same vein as Mexican tariffs for immigration control.

Outside the box.

John

By TimNew - June 26, 2019, 7:28 a.m.
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"The beauty here is that the tariffs are not being used to make an inferior product,lets say,more competitive,but instead they are being used to make unbalanced trade rules more fair."


I think you did a great job of putting my thoughts and feelings into words.

By metmike - June 26, 2019, 11:07 a.m.
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President Trump says this is his ‘Plan B’ if China-U.S. trade talks collapse    


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-today-president-threatens-tariffs-on-china-as-he-jokes-draghi-should-lead-fed-2019-06-26

“My Plan B with China is to take billions and billions a month…and we’ll do less business with them,” Trump said. Wall Street is eagerly waiting for a meeting with Trump and China President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 gathering that is set to take place in Osaka, Japan, over the weekend. 

 

The U.S. already has imposed 25% tariffs on some $200 billion of Chinese goods, and Trump has threatened to impose the same levy on over $300 billion of Chinese products."

By metmike - June 26, 2019, 11:12 a.m.
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The market has gotten weary and skeptical about China tariff/news  recently. 

Soybean prices would spike 20c up or down based on the news 9 months ago. Now, the price doesn't seem to react much.

However, I wouldn't want to be short beans, right when the news of a real deal is announced. 

By Richard - June 26, 2019, 12:51 p.m.
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there is zero chance of a trade deal with China coming out of the G20 meeting.

By TimNew - June 27, 2019, 3:38 a.m.
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I think 0% chance is a little low but  agree that a deal is not likely to be reached at G20. Best case is a percieved softening of the relationship

By Richard - June 27, 2019, 11:51 a.m.
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ok, never say ALWAYS or NEVER cause I have seen in my lifetime things happen that have completely shocked me. The chance of a deal is very low and also progress being made is very low. I think that Trump will not win in 2020 and the Chinese have realized this or will realize it very soon and will just wait for the next president to deal with. In fact I can go so far as saying that relations between china and the us will get worse between now and Jan 2021, when Trump leaves. So sad for the Trump supporters. I am one of them. So sad.