Thanks Larry!

Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, is still increasing now seasonally and will be the most important  market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days).

However, July is usually a weak month for natural gas prices.

Monday Weather: A bit cooler in week 2. Rain makes grain

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33631/

Tuesday Weather:  Where will the heat ridge be for the 2nd half of July? This is what matters the most and has great uncertainty.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33726/

Wednesday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33786/

Thursday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33837/

Friday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33903/

Saturday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33962/

Sunday Weather: Heat ridge still coming

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34019/

Previous weekly discussions on natural gas here(dang, this is getting to be long list)

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33132/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32675/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32177/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31521/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31099/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30641/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30007/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/29419/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28858/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/28351/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27780/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27305/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26861/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26506/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/26105/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25678/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25189/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24662/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24111/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/23680/

Look for the big injections to continue vs average(but smaller than recent ones and less than 100 bcf)..........depending on the weather(which has heated up finally in some places).

 We've quickly gone from a deficit vs 2018 to a growing surplus. Next up, a surplus vs the 5 year average which will happen  later this year.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,301 Bcf as of Friday, June 21, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 236 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 171 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,472 Bcf. At 2,301 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Last weeks EIA #  +98BCF   Bullish for the first time in many weeks!!

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 21, 2019   |  Released: June 27, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 3, 2019 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,301 Bcf as of Friday, June 21, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 98 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 236 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 171 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,472 Bcf. At 2,301 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

Latest Release  Jun 27, 2019    Actual 98B    Forecast 101B    Previous 115B

   https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Temperatures for last Thursday EIA report. 

Cool north, very warm south.

Temperatures for this WEDNESDAY'S report: Warm East, Cool West.

The dominant imposing factor has been massive, record large injections that have increased supplies faster than any time in history and crushed prices.

Looking at the chart below, you can see small a bounce during May from expectations of the intense heat in the Southeast, causing some record cooling demand for May in that region.

Last week featured increasing heat, so natural got a lift............along with the short covering ahead of the July contract expiration.  The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts this week, thru the rest of the Summer.  We started the week under pressure from cooler week 2 forecasts. As long as there is no extreme heat in the forecast, natural gas can continue lower but widespread heat will give us bounces.

NG 7 days

Natural gas 3 months below

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009. Not sure on what they use exactly to make their calculations but I've been following seasonal patterns since the early 90's(I paid thousands of dollars in the 90's to get seasonal charts for every commodity updated every 2 years) and this graph does a nice job at capturing the seasonality of natural gas.

This shows that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up after mid February to mid June. This years extraordinary, contra seasonal plunge lower has been the result of super duper, huge, injections...records by a wide margin........ that have provided numerous bearish surprises and crushed prices. Cash prices during this period have been below $2 at times.   We are now in a time frame when ng seasonals become very negative, from mid/late June thru August.

A cool Summer, with currently bearish fundamentals/huge supplies could add to the seasonal pressure. Widespread, intense heat can give us a good bounce.

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Monday(look at those cash prices!)

Market ‘Disappointed’ by July Heat as Natural Gas Futures Drop; Cash Weak Ahead of Holiday

     5:18 PM    

Natural gas futures sold off Monday as forecasts showed near-term heat easing off by next week. Meanwhile, with some of the hottest conditions of the summer to date expected this week, but with the associated demand potentially tempered by the Fourth of July holiday, spot prices mostly skidded lower; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 1.5 cents to $1.930/MMBtu

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Tuesday:

No Fireworks for Natural Gas Futures as Slide Continues

     5:12 PM    

Natural gas futures sold off for a third straight session Tuesday, with weak physical prices, cooler forecast trends and the prospect of another above-average inventory build all helping to keep the bulls on the sidelines. Meanwhile, calls for more heat and humidity along the East Coast couldn’t stir up a stagnant spot market; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. slumped 5.5 cents to $1.875/MMBtu.

metmike: Because of the holiday, the EIA report will come out tomorrow instead of Thursday. Wow, look at those sub $2 cash prices!!

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 28, 2019   |  Released: July 3, 2019 at 12:00 p.m.   |  Next Release: July 11, 2019 

                    +89 bcf a bit bearish based on the small spike down after the release.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Wednesday:  

Natural Gas Futures Traders Not Sweating EIA Build; East Coast Cash Slides

After ending the previous few sessions in the red, natural gas futures rebounded Wednesday, with hotter forecaster trends helping the market to.

Sat wx updated