KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 2, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.7%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
9:45 AM ET. June ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 48.6)
10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 53.2)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 47.7)
4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -7.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 18.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1949.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.2%)
7:30 AM ET. June Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +46%)
8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +27000)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 227K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)
8:30 AM ET. May U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -50.79B)
Exports (USD) (previous 206.847B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 257.638B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
9:45 PM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 PM ET. June US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.9)
10:00 AM ET. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 56.9)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.2)
Prices Idx (previous 55.4)
Employment Idx (previous 58.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 58.6)
10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -2.1%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 469.576M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -12.788M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.225M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.996M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.38M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.441M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.876M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.069M)
11:00 AM ET. June Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.6)
12:00 PM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2301B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)
1300/1700 U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day
Thursday, July 4, 2019
N/A Marianas: U.S. Independence Day
N/A U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed
Friday, July 5, 2019
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +75K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.83)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.22%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous 3.1%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous -15K)
Private Payroll (previous +90K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.8%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 405.0K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 487.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 612.1K)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7505.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7849.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.750. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7505.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7446.25.
The September S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2914.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2981.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2914.65. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at 2885.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 156-17. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 151-12.
September T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.151 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target.First resistance is June's high crossing at 128.085. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.151. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 126.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 20th high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.50.
August heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.97. Second resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.94. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.23.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 17th high crossing at 200.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 17th high crossing at 200.99. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 203.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 185.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.49.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.309 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.309. Second resistance is the June 17th reaction high crossing at 2.413. First support is June's low crossing at 2.134. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.029.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.28 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends Monday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.71 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at 97.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 96.27. First support is June's low crossing at 95.36. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.8 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 116.21 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the June 18th reaction low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2849 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2849. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1.2914 is the next upside target. First support is June's low crossing at 1.2556. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0209 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0085 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 1.0505 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0185. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0085.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2018 high crossing at 76.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.69. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 76.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.59.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0926. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.922.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1371.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1371.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1323.90.
September silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.127 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.127. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.927.
September copper was lower overnight following Monday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.14 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 273.14. Second resistance is the May 6th reaction high crossing at 285.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 267.93. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends last-Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.18 1/2.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 17 1/2-cents at 4.67.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.69 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.40 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.93. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.51 1/4. Second support is the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/4 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 326.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. Second resistance is the June-2018 high crossing at 346.10. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $2.70 at $78.70.
August hogs closed sharply higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off March's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 88.13. First support is June's low crossing at 73.95. Second support is the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90.
August cattle closed down $0.25 at 104.10.
August cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 107.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.40. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.18 at $137.03.
August Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.06 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at 142.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.05. First support is June's low crossing at 130.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee gapped up and closed higher on Monday but near-session lows. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
September cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 25.81 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.06 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed higher on Monday as it extends the May-June trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 68.60 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 64.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range.
Thanks tallpine!
Potential for a huge weather pattern change later in week 2, all hinging on the position of the heat ridge.