INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 3, 2019, 8:10 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, July 3, 2019  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 18.7)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.3)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1949.5)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.2%)

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. June Challenger Job-Cut Report

 



 

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +46%)

 



 

 

8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +27000)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 227K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 



 

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -50.79B)

 



 

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 206.847B)

 



 

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 257.638B)

 



 

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 PM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

9:45 PM ET. June US Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 50.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 56.9)

 



 

 

                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 61.2)

 



 

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 55.4)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 58.1)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 58.6)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

 



 

 

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%  (previous -2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 469.576M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -12.788M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.225M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.996M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.38M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.441M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 94.2%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.876M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.069M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. June Global Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 51.6)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2301B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)

 

                        

 

1300/1700           U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day

 



 

 

Thursday, July 4, 2019   

 



 

 

  N/A               Marianas: U.S. Independence Day

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

Friday, July 5, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls  (previous +75K)

 



 

 

                       Unemployment Rate (previous 3.6%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.83)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.06)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.22%)

 



 

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous 3.1%)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)

 



 

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 



 

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous -15K)

 



 

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +90K)

 



 

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.8%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 405.0K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 487.8K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 612.1K)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7638.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7872.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.750. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7638.81. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7446.25.



The September S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2923.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2988.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2923.31. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at 2885.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-29 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 158-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154-29. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 152-27.



September T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.177 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.177. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 126.155. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the May 20th high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.61. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.    



August heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.39. Second resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.53. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 178.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 17th high crossing at 200.99 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 17th high crossing at 200.99. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 203.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.62. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178.31.



August Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.302 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.302. Second resistance is the June 17th reaction high crossing at 2.413. First support is June's low crossing at 2.134. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.029. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends Monday's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.69 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at 97.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.69. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 96.27. First support is June's low crossing at 95.36. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.78.



The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.33 would extends the decline off June's high, the June 18th reaction low crossing at 112.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the June 18th reaction low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.    



The September British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2840 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2840. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 1.2914 is the next upside target. First support is June's low crossing at 1.2556. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.  



The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0091 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 1.0505 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0181. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0091. 



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2018 high crossing at 76.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.69. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 76.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.68.  



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0923 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0926. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.923.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1377.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1377.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1327.30.



September silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.155 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.937. 



September copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 261.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 272.61. Second resistance is the May 6th reaction high crossing at 285.35. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends last-Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.19 1/2.    



December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.05 3/4. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 12-cents at 4.55.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.93. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.49 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 326.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. Second resistance is the June-2018 high crossing at 346.10. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.     



December soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $0.28 at $78.98. 



August hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off March's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.53. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.72. First support is June's low crossing at 73.95. Second support is the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90. 



August cattle closed unchanged at 104.10. 



August cattle closed unchanged on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 107.18. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $1.35 at $138.38. 



August Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 141.63 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at 141.63. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.05. First support is June's low crossing at 130.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of its recent gains and filled Monday's gap. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 11.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



September cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 25.81 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.08 is the next downside target.               



October sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target. 



December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the May-June trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 68.60 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 64.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range.

Comments
By metmike - July 3, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!