June natural gas was set to open Friday slightly lower at around $2.808/MMBtu, with the market continuing to mull the implications of Thursday’s leaner-than-expected Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report.
Yesterday's +89 lead to a bullish reaction. However, based on the long term, this (+89 on 61 HDD and 11 CDD) wasn't bullish. There have been a number of weeks of past years with injections about 20 bcf lower with ~60-62 HDD. Those tended to be during bullish periods. Yesterday's +89 wasn't unprecedentedly bearish, but it was at the
2014-2015 level of bearishness. In other words, prepare for some 100+
injections, possibly well above 100 next week, before it gets hot enough to reduce them.
With yesterday's solid upward gain, there might have been a whisper # that
was much higher as the WSJ mean was only 2 higher at 91.
Maybe alot of short covering by the huge funds as the buying after the report price gyration was very sustained and the price just steadily and slowly increased.
I also think that the heat has already started to effect next week's injection.
We tied a record high yesterday here in sw IN. It will be up near 90 today.
Then we have several more days near 90 that will lower the injection number after that.
Maybe so. Good point. The next couple of weeks of EIAs will be quite interesting just as the last 2 have been. I'm currently leaning toward next week's injection being 100+ but that remains to be seen for the reason you gave.
This early season heat borders unprecedented because there are going to be widespread record to near record highs for around 5 days.
It's happened before a few times at this time of year but 5 days in a row with near record highs could not be record highs if it had been much hotter on previous days.
I will have to add that we are at the epicenter of heat anomalies compared to normal here in the S.Ohio River Valley:
Wow, Mike! That sure is a large area of anomalies of +6+ for the upcoming 5 days and something to consider for the EIA to be released a week from Thursday. Perhaps, we'll get 100+ in next week's report but below 100 the subsequent week? We'll see.
U.S. Adds Three Natural Gas Rigs as Oil Count Surges
May 11 2018
The United States added three natural gas rigs for the week ended Friday but was overshadowed once again by a big jump
The site for the Rig Count data is not updated with this weeks data as of 4:40pm.
From NGI(Natural Gas Intelligence)
Natural gas futures declined Friday but held on to the lion’s share of the previous day’s rally, with storage concerns supporting prices after a smaller-than-expected injection. In the spot market, a few Appalachian points sold off sharply amid maintenance-related constraints, while expectations for moderate weekend demand helped sink prices at SoCal Citygate; the NGI National Spot Gas Average fell 5 cents to $2.26/MMBtu.