INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 8, 2019, 7:56 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 8, 2019  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 111.63)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

2:00 AM ET. U.S. SEC Chairman Jay Clayton in Boston

 



 

 

3:00 AM ET. May Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +17.50B)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends last-Friday's sharp sell off. Last-Friday’s stronger-than-expected data on June job creation prompted questions about whether the Fed might still think that is needed. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7704.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 7909.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.750. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7704.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7580.07.



The September S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2941.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3004.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2965.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2941.72.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it they consolidate some of last-Friday's decline.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-Friday's decline, June's low crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. First resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 158-09. First support is June's low crossing at 152-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-01.



September T-notes were slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it extends last-Friday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-week's high, June's low crossing at 126.155 is the next downside target. If September resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is June's low crossing at 126.155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.046. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it appears to be forming a small bear-flag above the 20-day moving average. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the May 20th high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.18. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.    



August heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.24. Second resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 188.72. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-week's. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, the May 17th high crossing at 200.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 17th high crossing at 200.99. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 203.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.72.



August Henry natural gas was higher overnight. However, the low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.472 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If August resumes the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 2.029 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.472. Second resistance is the May 29th reaction high crossing at 2.653. First support is June's low crossing at 2.134. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.029. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.20. Second support is June's low crossing at 95.36.



The September Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the June 18th reaction low crossing at 112.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.73 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the June 18th reaction low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.    



The September British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2686 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2686. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2815 is the next upside target. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2523. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0105 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0238 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0105. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.0066. 



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2018 high crossing at 76.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.81. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 76.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.88.  



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0948. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0924. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0917.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1383.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1383.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1332.00.



September silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.938 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.938. Second support is the June 10th reaction low crossing at 14.700. 



September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 261.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.76 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.76. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at 275.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.    



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn gapped up and was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.05 1/4.    



December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/2. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 1-cent at 4.66 1/2.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.54 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.53 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat was mostly steady overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68 1/4. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 5.82. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.46. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.15 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 326.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. Second resistance is the June-2018 high crossing at 346.10. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.     



December soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is June's low crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $1.32 at $77.05. 



August hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off March's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.72 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.87. First support is June's low crossing at 73.95. Second support is the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90. 



August cattle closed up $1.55 at 107.00. 



August cattle gapped up and closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 106.68 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 100.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 17th reaction high crossing at 109.78. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 119.95. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $2.25 at $138.83. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 140.81 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 128.57 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at crossing at 140.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.05. First support is June's low crossing at 130.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, October 2018 high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



September cocoa closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high crossing at 25.81 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.15 is the next downside target.               



October sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the May-June trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 68.60 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 64.70 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range.

Comments
By metmike - July 8, 2019, 10:38 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine. The weather pattern has shifted and now has the threat of some heat and dryness but that threat decreased overnight.