KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 10, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 518.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 269.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1925.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
10:00 AM ET. June Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. May Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 468.491M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.085M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 230.642M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.583M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 126.788M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.408M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.2%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.77M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.106M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
Thursday, July 11, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 226K; previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1686000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. June CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous +0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.8%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.0%; previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 331.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1029.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 276.6K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2390B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)(previous +89B)
12:00 AM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
12:00 PM ET. June Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, July 12, 2019
8:30 AM ET. June PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight in cautious trading ahead of congressional testimony by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7714.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 7910.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 7909.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7910.750. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7714.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7578.45.
The September S&P 500 was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2944.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3004.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2968.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2948.80.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were sharply lower overnight as it they extend the decline off last-Friday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 155-10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 156-29 is the next upside target. First resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 158-09. First support is June's low crossing at 152-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-04.
September T-notes were lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off last-week's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 126.155 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.211 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 130.010 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is June's low crossing at 126.155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.059.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was higher overnight in response to a late Tuesday report that U.S. crude supplies fell by 8.1 million barrels for the week ended July 5, according to sources.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the May 20th high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.55. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.
August heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 195.03. Second resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.
August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-week's. Tuesday's API's report showed a stockpile decline of 257,000 barrels for gasoline, which has helped to underpin the overnight rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, the May 17th high crossing at 200.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 17th high crossing at 200.99. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 203.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.95.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.470 would open the door for a possible test of the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.520. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.316 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.470. Second resistance is the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.520. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.316. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.134.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.40.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the Tuesday's low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2667 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2667. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2803 is the next upside target. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2480. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0208 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.0066.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2018 high crossing at 76.85 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.81. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 76.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.15.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the May 30th reaction low crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0935. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the May 30th low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is the May 21st reaction low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1389.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1389.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1336.10.
September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above support marked by the 50-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.939 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.939. Second support is the June 10th reaction low crossing at 14.700.
September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 259.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 270.67 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 270.67. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at 275.70. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 261.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-week's low. Pressure overnight came from position squaring ahead of Thursday's USDA WASDE report that is expected to be bearish. The USDA is expected to raise its forecast for both old and new crop carryout. The 2018 figure should rise due to slowing exports, while new crop stocks will reflect USDA’s larger than expected June 28 acreage forecast unless the agency lowers its yield estimate again to offset the acreage. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.48 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.05 1/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. U.S. wheat continues to face tough competition as Egypt filled its latest tender on Tuesday with 8.8 million bushels out of Ukraine and Romania. U.S. wheat out of the Gulf delivered was more than $1 a bushel off the winning offers. Improving ratings for both winter and spring wheat make it likely USDA will increase its production estimate in Thursdays update. Big changes aren’t expected to the agency’s estimate of new crop carryout, which should stay above 1 billion bushels. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 5.06 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is June's low crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 4.61.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.87 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is today's low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.63 1/2. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 5.82. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally lower overnight following Tuesday's rally on reports of slow planting and lower ratings reported in Monday’s Crop Progress reports.Thursday’s USDA report is expected to show a production estimate that will reflect its sharply lower estimate of acreage made June 28, while old crop ending stocks could be down by nearly 100 million bushels based on the inventory report out the same day. Traders are holding out a small hope for additional purchases by China when negotiators resume telephone talks later this week. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.17 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.88 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.88 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 322.00. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is June's low crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $3.00 at $79.07.
August hogs closed limit up on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.07 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off March's high, the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 86.15. First support is June's low crossing at 73.95. Second support is the July-2018 low crossing at 69.90.
August cattle closed up $1.98 at 108.13.
August cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.93. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 119.95. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $3.98 at $142.88.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 140.32 confirm that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 143.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is June's low crossing at 130.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 128.57.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, October 2018 high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
September cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 26.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 12.04 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 13.33 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed sharply lower on Tuesday marking a downside breakout of the May-June trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's downside breakout of the May-June trading range, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.09 would confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine..........tons of heat coming up. Barry may be a minimal hurricane.