INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 12, 2019, 6:29 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, July 12, 2019   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell left investors feeling fairly confident about the odds of an interest rate cut later this month. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7760.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 7963.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7760.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7584.65.



The September S&P 500 traded into recorded higher overnight on expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates later this month. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2957.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3011.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2986.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2957.42.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend their decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-01 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 158-09. First support is June's low crossing at 152-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-12.



September T-notes were steady to slightly higher in overnight trading following Thursday's sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, June's low crossing at 126.155 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.196 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is June's low crossing at 126.155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.099. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 20th high crossing at 64.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 66.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.    



August heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 186.94.



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 207.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 203.78. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 207.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 193.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 186.38.



August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.322 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.460 would open the door for a possible test of the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.522. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.460. Second resistance is the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.522. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.322. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.134.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.38. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 96.12.



The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.53 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the Tuesday's low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.    



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2651 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2651. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2780 is the next upside target. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2480. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.  



The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0207 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0116 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0116. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.0066. 



The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and tested the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23.  



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the May 30th reaction low crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0935. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the May 30th low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is the May 21st reaction low crossing at 0.0912.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1341.40.



September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.950 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.950. Second support is the June 10th reaction low crossing at 14.700. 



September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 270.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 259.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 270.10. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at 275.70. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 261.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.    



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Despite Thursday's bearish report for corn, many traders do not believe the USDA's planted acreage number believing total corn acres will be significantly below their current estimate. With the report out of the way, the trade will now focus on weather until the August WASDE report is released.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 4.05 1/4.    



December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally following a friendly USDA report released on Thursday.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 5.06 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is June's low crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 18 3/4-cents at 4.81 1/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally following a friendly WASDE report. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.60 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.60 1/4. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 5.82. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.38. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.18 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.90. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.



December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 321.10. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.     



December soybean oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is June's low crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96. 



Comments
By metmike - July 12, 2019, 11:06 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Heat ridge and how long it will last is the focus.