AgResource Beans 3-5 higher Corn 2-4 higher
That Tropical storm looks to be headed to the western side of Chicago [durn]
Does the western corn belt need rain
In our situation we are severely heat stressed and need rain badly
Unless the western corn belt DOES NOT need rain one would think corn and beans would have a hard time going up until we see the rain totals
Would somebody advise me as to western corn belt rain needs
Maybe they don't want rain, thus corn and beans up
Might be my backyarditis showing
We need rain badly
Some chances but this storm is our best hope
Wayne,
The WCB DOES need rain but we have no rain for most of NE/IA/(much of)IL high producing areas for the next 2 weeks.
Heat this week is why those spots will really be needing rain.......then turning MUCH cooler week 2 but not much rains. We need some rain in those areas.
The forecast is similar to Friday with rains but definitely cooler in week 2 which is why natural gas has been under pressure for the first hour of trading.
must be back yard itis but corn up 7 and beans 15
backyarditis mcfarm.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Grains poised for breakaway gaps!
By metmike - July 14, 2019, 8:09 p.m.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Be very careful here because the forecast is NOT more bulllish than Friday and we are vulnerable for this to be an exhaustion gap if any rain shows up overnight to go with the much cooler temps in week 2.
Cooler and still dry can still be pretty bullish but we really need the heat ridge to stay over the Cornbelt for this to be clearly bullish enough to go much higher.
mcfarm i am with you my back yard sucks also. might be good if it was June 1
The 2018 highs happened on the Monday Night of Memorial Day Weekend, with a big gap higher that was added to for awhile overnight on hot/dry 6-10/8-14 day forecasts that weekend and everybody all bulled up...........while the week 2 models had already started changing to much cooler.
We filled the gaps and as the maps kept getting wetter, kept going lower and lower.........all Summer long.
We can still go higher here as long as rain is not added and especially if heat comes back in week 2 but you should know that beans already went from 890 to 935 from this hot/dry weather pattern and corn from 435 to 465 from it.
If rains show up with the cooler temps in the week 2 forecast, we can be back down there in a flash.
But as long as we don't have a good rain in the forecast for IA/NE/ and most of IL, we can keep going higher.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, MetMike. I agree with everything you mentioned. As a farmer, the hardest thing for me, is to NOT think as a farmer.
Beans and corn in good shape technically here as long as we don't add rains overnight.
We obviously added rains overnight:
Mondays weather below:
Monday's update continues exactly with the (bearish) trends mentioned yesterday and Saturday, so no change.........EXCEPT TO ADD RAIN: "The Saturday week 2 forecast is COOLER!!! The heat ridge is retrograding(backing up westward)"
When we have several grain posts going at the same time, it's hard to know which one to update the weather on, so I'll cover 2 of them:
By metmike - July 15, 2019, 7:47 p.m.
The gap tonight will be a downside gap lower.
The last US models shows even more rain in the 11-15 day period than before which goes along with the already bearish much cooler temperatures in week 2.
That, combined with a slightly improved crop rating should give us the lower open, after closing near the lows on Monday..........thus a downside gap.
On the bullish side, the European model did not have as much rain in week 2 as the US model but that last run was from over 6 hours ago and won't be updated until early morning Tuesday. Also, rains with the remnants of Barry have been much less than model forecasts so far.
The US model MUST take out this rain or the highs are in for sure.
CZ20 @4.18. Time to start scaling in some sales? Roll to Mar or July 2021, and not a bad price with average yields. I've sold a lot of corn the past several years far cheaper than that !
I sure don't have any idea on what prices might be in a year from now bowyer.
The CZ has done another gap and crap, this time gapping lower on the open tonight and now filling the gap between the highs of tonight and the lows of the Monday trading bar.
Some wild volatile trading in the grains right now.
What happened to the rain? We had thunderstorm warnings last night. I even opened my bedroom window to listen and nothing. Just a lot of wind. I just looked at the weather map and it looks like the tropical storm just dried up?
same only worse here Jim....lots of replant beans laying in dry dirt. that hurricane with the near 100% chance of an all day rain today and tomorrow according to my local met tv guy has not hit any ground. In fact yesterday as it came north from Mo it actually started raining near Cincinnati somehow as it skipped right over .....today it feels like and looks like rain and nothing is happening except it a bit cooler.
You are correct jim. The rains with the remnants of the tropical system have been much less than expected in weather forecasts.