Corn and beans both improve by 1%.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2919.txt

      Craig Solberg‏ @CraigSolberg                  10m10 minutes ago              

National corn ratings (percent good/excellent) for around July 14 (since 1989)

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  13m13 minutes ago              

U.S. #corn conditions by state. National increased 1 pt to 58% good/excellent. Many of the major states saw improvements, led by a 5 point jump in Illinois.

Craig Solberg‏ @CraigSolberg                                              

National soybean ratings (percent good/excellent) for around July 14 (since 1990)

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  6m6 minutes ago              

Conditions for U.S. #soybeans increased 1 pt to 54% good/excellent. Some of the notable increases were +3 in Illinois, +6 in Missouri, and +5 in Ohio. Still not a ton of good looking crops in those states, though.

58% and what 53%?? [I forgot exactly] C and B does not bode well for even a decent kind of total production. Certainly one would think below trend line. Will the surplus get down to pipeline by next yrs harvest. A hiccup in next yr production and are we ever in a world of supply/demand issues

But: one must remember, when have we had back to back production issues?? As a farmer it is very easy to get carried away with ever higher prices. The last time we had ever higher prices it was  ethanol that carried the market

Me thinks reports of food shortages at the super market might be a tad of a head line grabber to stir up public interest and sell media space

Of course somebody will be correct and everybody will crown the new forcaster

Did anybody noticed that only IA and Kansas have any amount of decent production acres in good/excellent and even those acres will not be enough for the rest of the corn belt problems. If dry really does put a hurt on either IA or Kansas, then we are in a bit of trouble.

Ohio, Indiana and even Ill have a very low % of good/excellent acres. Good rains in those three states will not make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

Makes one wonder where the crop production will come from and how much

I still say, considering how much crop was planted in June and the crop report as it is, we are heading to a train wreck

The only thing that might save us is a late frost

Just because it is planted does not tell us how much ends up in the bin. Looking good but 3 weeks late is a possible problem the report does not tell us.

Low test wt because of frost is a yield killer.

We have some corn in Ontario that will tassel in a week, maybe 10 days. Right when we are dry. But most will pollinate some time in August. In our little spot of the world, August pollination means low test wt. No if ands or buts about it, and some will no even make corn. We had it happen and know what to expect, depending on frost date.

I have seen pics of huge areas of the USA corn belt that is in a world of hurt from yellow to early wet, to ponds, to everything under the sun including late planted June corn. Late planted corn tends to grow taller, looks good, but pollination does not occur when it should

Pollination and frost will determine this yrs crop yield even though the head lines are all about dry soil. Yes we need rain but we need a lot more than rain and a lot of those sins have already happened. Dry just makes a poor crop even worse, as the plant can not tolerate dry as well as a healthy plant can do so, thus heat stress is much harder on corn planted late or in wet soils.

Hear that train whistle

Coming round the corner

Thanks Wayne!

The question that the market is asking every day at this time of year: "Is the crop getting bigger or smaller than we thought it was going to be yesterday?"

Somebody that bought CZ last week, at $4.40  for instance on hot and no rain in the 2 week forecast is not likely going to buy more corn when the forecast has much less heat and some rain.

Maybe they will lower their projected price and stay long but the composite market as a whole will be assessing the less bullish forecast, bigger crop and assign that to a lower price but new buying will not emerge at higher prices on less bullish news because the crop is seen as getting bigger with the updated forecast, so its worth less.

Bigger in a relative sense. Maybe its really undervalued here. We won't know until harvest but every day during the key developing stage we face the same question. Did the latest/updates weather forecast just make the crop bigger or smaller compared to where it was before then.

The answer tells us whether we should go higher or lower on that day. 

And the change in price will almost always be exaggerated because everybody gets much of the same information and many have a similar idea and act the same way at the same time.  So the magnitude of moves is amplified by a herd mentality.

This also means that the market is almost always wrong. 

It is always right at any instant in time, when deals are being done but if it was always right, then the price would stay the same every day.

Each new day, we find out how bad the markets price projection was the previous day.

During weather markets like this. The market is way off. The market price was much too low early last week because the market was oblivious to the "dome of death" heat ridge that looked so impressive and long lasting late in the week.

But  today, we found out how wrong the market was on Friday about the week 2 weather, when the weather models came in much cooler over the weekend.

Overnight, just after 5am, the US model and  ensembles added rains and the market believed it and pushed us much lower. Was it right? Only new weather guidance will tell us. 

The crop rating improved this afternoon and the market thought conditions would be the same or drop a bit, so the market was wrong and prices may need to fall some to dial in a bigger crop out there..............so we could gap lower tonight if the US model continues to have more rain.