KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, July 18, 2019

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 397.2K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 261.7K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 284.4K)

8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 0.3)

                       Prices Paid (previous 12.9)

                       Employment (previous 15.4)

                       New Orders (previous 8.3)

                       Prices Received (previous 0.6)

                       Delivery Times (previous 15.6)

                       Inventories (previous 2.4)

                       Shipments (previous 16.6)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 209K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1723000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +27K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

                       Leading Index (previous 111.8)

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2471B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +81B)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

Friday, July 19, 2019 

10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.9)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.6)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.5)

10:00 AM ET. June Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's sell off.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7816.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8001.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7816.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7743.00. 

The September S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2972.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3022.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2972.84. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2916.00.  

The Dow closed lower on Wednesday moving sideways to lower in the first big week of earnings. Analysts still believe that the earnings season could deliver more setbacks as companies discuss the impact of slowing global growth and trade war. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally above last-October's high crossing at 26,951.81 into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,857.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 27,398.68. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 27,073.57. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,857.74.

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

September T-bonds closed up 1-11/32's at 154-31.

September T-bonds closed higher as it extended the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 157-02. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.27. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 152-01.         

September T-notes closed up 175-pts. at 127.150.

September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.189 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.168 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.168. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-rally crossing at 125.167.       

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. Today's sell off was triggered by the latest inventory report, which showed a decline in stocks. Crude stockpiles fell by 3.1 million barrels for the week ended July 12. They were forecast to fall by 4.2 million barrels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 56.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 58.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 60.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 64.03. First support is July's low crossing at 56.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.  

August heating oil closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the reaction low crossing at 186.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 193.71 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.98 is the next upside target. First support is the reaction low crossing at 186.94. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74. 

August unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.38. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 189.39 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 207.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 203.78. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2018's decline crossing at 207.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.98. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 177.43.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.323 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March-May-downtrend crossing near 2.506 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.445. Second resistance is the March-May-downtrend crossing near 2.506. First support is July's low crossing at 2.217. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.134.        

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 97.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at crossing at 97.26. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.34. Second support is June's lowcrossing at 95.36.

The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.53. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. First support today's low crossing at 112.54. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.       

The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2635 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2635. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2739. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2417. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.0392 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 1.0066 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0131. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.0066.

The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 77.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 76.81. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 77.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.35.  

The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0935. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0942. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0912.  

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Gold futures finished sharply higher Wednesday as the U.S. dollar weakened and traders weighed expectations for a U.S. interest-rate cut. Prices extended today's rally into the close following the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. The report said the economy is expanding at roughly same “modest” pace as indicated in the last survey. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. Closes below July's low crossing at 1384.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1408.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1384.70.

September silver closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 16.470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.997 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16.030. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 16.470. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.997. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 14.700.          

September copper closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 275.70 would open the door for additional strength near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 259.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 275.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 285.35. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed up 1/4-cent at 4.41 1/4. 

December corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.30 3/4 would open the door for a test of the May 28^th gap crossing at 4.20. If December renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.30 3/4. Second support is the May 28^th gap crossing at 4.20.     

December wheat closed down 2 1/2-cents at 5.16 3/4. 

December wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.03 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.03 3/4.     

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 4-cents at 4.62 1/4.

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.78 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4.91 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 3/4-cents at 5.40 3/4. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.82. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.38 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.    

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down 5 1/2-cents at 9.00 1/2.

November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.93 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 9.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.75 1/4.  

December soybean meal closed down $0.90 at 307.50. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the May 28^th gap crossing at 309.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 323.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 323.80. Second resistance is the June 2018 high crossing at 346.10. First support is the May 28^th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.    

December soybean oil closed down 35 pts at 28.11. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is June's low crossing at crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96.     

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $2.95 at $82.00. 

August hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.42 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 75.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.42. Second resistance is the reaction crossing at 95.52. First support the reaction low crossing at 75.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 73.95.  

August cattle closed down $0.10 at 108.13. 

August cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.93. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 119.95. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.48 at $140.58. 

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 143.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 136.03. Second support is June's low crossing at 130.95.   

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.14 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, October 2018 high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. 

September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, June's low crossing at 23.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.              

October sugar closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, last September's low crossing at 11.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.42 would confirm that a low has been posted. 

December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.23 would confirm that a low has been posted.