Grains
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Started by metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:13 a.m.

Corn has come back to unch from being lower all night.............probably weak earlier from excellent planting weather for much of the belt and expectations for good progress on the USDA report this afternoon.


Beans continue to be the strongest by a wide margin.  SN +15c, SX +10c


Wheat the weakest, near the lows -7c

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By metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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By metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:20 a.m.
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                 metmike - May 13, 2018, 4:37 p.m.            

                                        

After experiencing dry and near record warmth over such a large section of the country the last few days, planting progress has likely caught up in most places. 

Rains have been MUCH less than expected. Rains over the past week, 2 weeks and month have been below average over much of the country:

This is a good link to seeing past rains:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick the time frame that you are interested in. It helps to see locations better if you check "state" on the map overlay. 

Under "products" you can see % of normal for all the periods. 

The area with the biggest delay/wet problem right now continues to be southern MN/northern IA. This is very high production country, so it matters. Rains over the next 7 days will keep this region from doing any widespread planting.

I expect tomorrow's planting progress report to have leaped and be above the 5 year average. The 5 year average is a low ball number because it includes 2013, the slowest year ever, when only 28% of the corn was planted on this date.

Last week, we had 39% of the corn planted. I will guess 68% for tomorrow. 

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:47 a.m.
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November beans bumping up against major resistance 1025 +10c



By metmike - May 14, 2018, 11:09 a.m.
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Just out, Export inspections:


https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

Wheat weak but up from last week.

Corn pretty good but down from massive last week

Beans up from last week

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 1:11 p.m.
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Beans were able to bust thru resistance. November res was 1025, now at 1028 +13

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:40 p.m.
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Corn and beans likely higher tonight from all the heat in the extended forecast and rains getting less and less every day.



By MarkB - May 15, 2018, 1:22 a.m.
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I'm in it for the money. And i have read the various ag reports for plantings. It would be my opinion that the market doesn't know how to react just yet. But soon.

By hayman - May 15, 2018, 8:05 a.m.
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Got the newcrop Nov Soybean pitchfork here that appears to provide "guardrails" for the price.  Seems price is bouncing off the lower tine and begun to move up.  The centerline at about $10.60 and then top tine comes in at Oceans Eleven ($11.00)!

By metmike - May 15, 2018, 11:48 a.m.
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Thanks hayman,

I agreed strongly with your assessment earlier but nooooooow......the beans are threatening to break out below the uptrending lower end of the guardrails. 


Corn doing a nice job of holding.

I think the long term weather may be turning more bullish..........heat and less rain but it looks a bit less bullish today vs yesterday with regards to the heat. 


SN-10c

SX-8c


When the front month is the weakest, its usually a bad sign.

By metmike - May 15, 2018, 11:59 a.m.
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My guess is that the funds are selling beans in a big way to liquidate their huge long position.

By mcfarm - May 15, 2018, 2:19 p.m.
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my guess on the beans is that China was expecting a much larger down than they got. They were going to buy tons at discount prices and it did not happen. Now put the tariff end and new China buying together and that would blow the shorts out of the water. 

could even be a tannerite type explosion if things come together in a timely fashion......nice turn around today and look at the corn close

By metmike - May 16, 2018, 10:34 p.m.
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Interesting set up here here for the grains.  


Beans are acting like a downside break out is inevitable, busting thru an uptrend line that goes back to early January, when the drought started in Argentina. ...........however, the "dome of death" could rescue them and cause a reversal higher........if extended maps continue to get hotter and drier overnight.