Disturbance in Gulf: no longer given any chance to develop
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Started by WxFollower - May 14, 2018, 12:36 p.m.

 Invest 90 L, the first of the Atlantic season, has just been declared for the disturbance in the E GOM off of FL. This is moving slowly north and has a chance to become a subtropical or tropical depression during the next couple of days. A lower end named storm (STS or TS) is not out of the question. If that happens, it would be the earliest in the season on record for a cyclone born in the Gulf. Regardless, the biggest impact from this is expected to be heavy rain over FL and possibly some other areas of the SE US as opposed to winds or storm surge.

 Edit: Though it had supposedly been dubbed Invest 90L per more than one source, apparently it never was due to lack of further development. Therefore, the 1st Invest 90L of the season looks like it will be saved for later.

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 12:42 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

You mentioned that this could happen a few days ago.

I hereby crown you the MarketForum expert on tropical weather! 

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 12:44 p.m.
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By metmike - May 14, 2018, 12:47 p.m.
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Should this system become a tropical storm, at 39 mph, it would be named Alberto. Below are all the names for this coming year thru the letter W. 




  • Alberto
  • Beryl
  • Chris
  • Debby
  • Ernesto
  • Florence
  • Gordon
  • Helene
  • Isaac
  • Joyce
  • Kirk
  • Leslie
  • Michael
  • Nadine
  • Oscar
  • Patty
  • Rafael
  • Sara
  • Tony
  • Valerie
  • William
By metmike - May 14, 2018, 1:52 p.m.
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It's you and me Larry!

Maybe we should rename the forum.

The Weather and Market Forum.

Actually, this new site was designed so that it can support numerous other forums, beside the NTR. However, I will have my hands filled just updating the way we have it.............hopefully for the rest of the Summer for grains and ng weather updates.

By WxFollower - May 14, 2018, 2:18 p.m.
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 I appreciate your hard work very much to liven up this forum as well as to post very useful info!

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 2:47 p.m.
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I am planning to email everybody from the last 2 decades and invite them back in early June......if things work out right.

Am setting the stage and providing the service that will hopefully keep them here.

Am not shocked at the lack of response because everybody left.........for what they planned is for good.

Fortunately, there are still a few that have not taken off and extremely fortunately for me right now, one of them is you. It would be pretty discouraging on a day like today if we took away your posts. 

Its not just any response either. Your stuff has tremendous value............which is the sort of stuff that people will come back for.

Not too many realize the value of your stuff but I have printed out a couple dozen posts of yours in the past, especially the ones that provide historical HDD's/CDD's and statistical relationships.

I know that you have a background in statistics. Before becoming a meteorologist, I studied actuarial science for a couple of years. Stats are fun to analyze!

By WxFollower - May 14, 2018, 3:02 p.m.
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Thanks, Mike. Wx is fun. Stats are fun. Wx stats are awesome!

By metmike - May 14, 2018, 7:16 p.m.
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By metmike - May 14, 2018, 7:18 p.m.
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Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 
1. A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Although this system could still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days.  For more information on this system, please see products issued by your local weather office.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
By metmike - May 16, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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Here is the update from Wednesday morning. The system is going to weaken and this is the last update from the Hurricane Center:



By Jim_M - May 16, 2018, 11:16 a.m.
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I'm liking the graphics Mike!  

By metmike - May 16, 2018, 11:30 a.m.
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I'm liking that you're liking the graphics Jim!

By metmike - May 16, 2018, 12:12 p.m.
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Let's test these maps out for you. The current weather map, then below that, the change in temperature the past 24 hours:



24 hr Temperature Contour - Current