INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 29, 2019, 7:41 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 29, 2019   

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous -12.1)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 8.9)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term top or downside correction might be near. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7913.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8051.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7913.15. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at 7815.25.



The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish warning traders that a pause or correction to consolidate some of the rally off June's low is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 19th low crossing at 2972.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3029.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 19th low crossing at 2972.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2922.82.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 157-02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-27 would open the door for sideways to lower prices near-term. First resistance is July's high crossing at 157-02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-27. Second support is June's low crossing at 152-27.



September T-notes were higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 128.140 is the next upside target. Closes below July's low crossing at 126.230 would renew the decline off July's high. First resistance is July's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.001. Second support is July's low crossing at 126.230. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 51.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.56. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 60.19. Third resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.02. First support is the July 18th low crossing at 54.85. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.    



September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 195.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 179.49. First resistance is July's high crossing at 202.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 214.41. First support is the July 18th low crossing at 185.96. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74. 



September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high the 62% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 174.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.02 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 185.02. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 197.13. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-July-rally crossing at 178.81. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 174.48.



September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 2.115 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.294 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.294. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.361. First support is June's low crossing at 2.115. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.029.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 97.86. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 97.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.91.



The September Euro was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.14. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 111.45. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.91.    



The September British Pound was sharply lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2529 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2529. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2651 is the next upside target. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2333. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.  



The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 1.0066 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0186 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.0251. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. First support is June's low crossing at 1.0066. Second support is the May 30th low crossing at 1.0006. 



The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 75.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.64.  



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at 0.0937, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-rally crossing at 0.0921 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0928 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0937. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0942. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-rally crossing at 0.0921.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1416.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1454.40. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1370.10.



September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 16.866 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.752 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 16.680. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 16.866. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.291. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.752. 



September copper was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 268.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 285.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 280.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 285.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 268.62. Second support is July's low crossing at 261.10.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight.The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, July's low crossing at 4.20 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.38 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4.64 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.22 1/4. Second support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20.    



December wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 5.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.95. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.  



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 3/4-cents at 4.50 1/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.78 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4.91 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.45 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.  



December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 5.34 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below July's low would confirm a downside breakout of the head-and-shoulders neckline thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-August. If November renews the rally off the July 18th low, July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. First support is July's low crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's losses. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 318.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 323.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 308.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.     



December soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the broad May-July trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 29.32 would would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.52. First support is July's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $0.48 at $86.43. 



August hogs closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 88.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 88.42. Second resistance is the reaction crossing at 95.52. First support the reaction low crossing at 75.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 73.95.  



August cattle closed unchanged at 108.65. 



August cattle closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 106.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 109.23. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July-decline crossing at 111.915. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 106.27. Second support is June's low crossing at 101.97. 

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.93 at $143.73. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 146.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 143.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 146.14. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 136.03.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 9.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



September cocoa closed sharply lower on Friday as it renewed the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the extends off July's high, June's low crossing at 23.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October sugar posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.15 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains near-term. If October resumes the decline off June's high, last September's low crossing at 11.45 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.72 would would open the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at 68.35 is the next upside target. If December renews this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 29, 2019, 11:17 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.

August natural gas expires today but the weather is still bearish.

Grain weather is bullish in week 1 without enough rain to greatly  help the spots that have dried out in the central/eastern belt..................but bearish in week 2 with rains increasing.