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Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
We continue to trade: "Rain makes Grain"(hot would be bullish, but we don't have long lasting heat, dry in the dry spots is bullish, especially beans). Cool is bearish natural gas right now, and especially bearish for pollinating and early filling for corn.........but the central and eastern Cornbelt have dried out and need rains. Crop ratings this afternoon could drop a bit in the dry spots.
Forecasts continue cooler than the ones a week ago. Rains this week miss some dry places. Possibly some decent rains in week 2, which looks bearish but this pattern historically can be dry in some places.
Early August is also continuing to turn drier seasonally.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Around average except for..............hot Southwest, Northeast, cool Midwest.
Highs for days 3-7:
Not a great deal of change.
Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below
Not too far from average.......... as we depart from the hottest time of year seasonally based on climatological/historical averages.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Amount of rains with a front are uncertain, some places good, other dry spots miss. Best rains probably from the C.Plains, southeastward to the SW.Cornbelt.
During this period, some of the driest spots will get drier but after this is when rains pick up.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Mixed bag. Best rains Western Cornbelt/C.Plains, least rains Eastern Cornbelt(except for Monday/today). Some get decent rains, others shortchanged with many dry areas not getting enough rain.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Risk of excessive rains.
Not much threat.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
| Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk
A strong storm or two possible but not much threat, which is typical this time of year with weak upper level winds.
Current Day 1 Outlook | Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri Issued: 20/1624Z Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms |
Current Day 2 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0546Z Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 3 Outlook | Forecaster: Broyles Issued: 20/0711Z Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Much of IA and IL got rain ripped off again!
Current Dew Points
Another dose of pleasant air with low humidity in the Upper Midwest, pouring southeast behind a cold front(which is triggering showers from the lift ahead of it of the warm, more humid air).
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Parts of Iowa have dried out, along with parts of the central and eastern belt, especially N/C Illinois.
If not for the potential for big rains in week 2, this could turn very bullish.....take those rains out and corn and beans go higher.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Currently, there is now some drought in the main Cornbelt/Midwest. There is still drought in the Southeast.
Previous: Short term dryness is becoming an issue is some spots that might result in a bit of long term drought (flash drought) later this Summer if rains don't pick up in the extended period.
Latest: The above has occurred, note the light yellow shades below on the just updated Drought monitor.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Sunday: Welcome back metmike! After retrograding west in week 1(as was predicted and anticipated by the market last week, Heat ridge is trying to build back east during week 2.........actually starting late in week 1.
Monday: Where will the heat ridge be? This model like the idea of the Southwest to Southern Plains for the center of it but with a wide spread in solutions.
Tuesday: Very similar to Monday.
Wednesday: Mean ridge position farther west today, more troughing east but with a few that disagree.
Thursday: Pronounced trough Midwest to Northeast. A few solutions very amplified and cool.
Friday: Same as yesterday. Ridge Rockies with heat, trough to the east with cool temps. Rain amounts in northwest flow are uncertain but not that bountiful for some spots.
Saturday: Flattened ridge West/trough east/more zonal with a new features showing up on this model..........upper level ridge building in the Western Atlantic to Florida.
Sunday: Reverting back closer to Friday's solution with the upper level ridge in the Rockies and downstream trough.
Monday: Looks more like Saturday again. Flattened ridge that shifts east towards the Plains, less troughing in the east(not as cool) and the Upper level ridge building again in the West Atlantic. This is warmer at the end of week 2 than yesterday.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 13, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Sunday: Wide spread on the location of the heat ridge as week 2 progresses.......and the location of a potential upper level trough that might be forced to stay in Canada if the heat ridge bullies its way far enough east.
Monday: Heat ridge out West........how far east can it expand with its heat and how much upper troughing/cooling downstream might try to interfere with that heat in the Northeast.
Tuesday: Northern stream in Canada getting active. How much influence will it have south of the border with cold fronts/how far south will they go?
Wednesday: Ridge West, trough east couplet looking much more obvious for early August..................cooler and possibly on the dry side.
Thursday: Ridge West, DEEP trough to cut off low downstream(Midwest to Southeast Canada). Powerful couplet for delivering cool air. Hot West though. Precip will depend on active northwest flow and how much moisture returns to cold fronts. More rain the farther east we go. Might be dry in the Plains.
Friday: Ridge West, trough east. Cooool. How much rain?
Saturday: Ridge West/trough East in week 2 is dominant on this model with potential for some changes late week 2.
Sunday: Is the ridge out West going to shift eastward late in week 2?
Monday: More indications that the ridge in the West could shift farther northeast, along with some of the heat. Trough in the east is notably weaker which means not as cool in the Midwest/East.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Sunday: Huge change in the positive anomaly center with it massively growing from yesterday in NorthCentral Canada. Weak negative anomaly below it in southeast Canada to around the Great Lake links up to some potential northern stream cold fronts.
Monday: Looks just like Sunday. Positive anomaly N/C Canada extending to W USA with a weak negative anomaly from SE Canada to the Eastern 1/3 of the US that translates to a potential connection with some cooler air from Canada.
Tuesday: Same big positive anomaly in N/C Canada coupled with negative anomaly in the Northeast for cool air delivery south of the border.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly center shifted to NW Canada but positive in the Western US and weakness downstream suggest cool temps............possibly dry. Potential building heights from the W.Atlantic to the East Coast which might bring hot weather back to the East in less than 2 weeks.
Sunday: Welcome back metmike! Positive anomaly heights across the northern tier strongly supports heat. Negative heats in the south favors less heat for this time of year. This is sometimes a dry-ish pattern but the models like the idea of average to above average rains in week 2.
Monday: Band of positive anomalies across the northern tier means very warm temps have a good chance to spread across the country in that location. Very weak negative anomaly in the deep south suggest less heat there.
Tuesday: The change from yesterday is the significant negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. This is associated with an upper level trough which will modulate cold fronts driven south into the Midwest and is also the reason for the forecast to be wet. Take that feature away, and the heat ridge would be more powerful/be able to expand farther northeast.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly stands out west, with modest negative anomaly in the Midwest/East suggest couplet which means heat West, cooler downstream in the Midwest to East.
Thursday: Powerful northern stream couplet between positive anomaly centered in Northwest Canada but extending well south of the border, across the entire US, to negative anomaly downstream, centered in Southeast Canada and extended well south of the border.
Friday: Full latitude positive anomaly West, all the way to Alaska, coupled nicely with negative anomaly downstream centered in Southeast Canada to Northeast US. Heat West, cool Midwest/East.
Saturday: Anomalies have a bit less magnitude today but are still positive/hot west, negative/cool east.
Sunday: Weak positive west and new positive height anomaly in the deep South. Negative in eastern Canada. Cool in the period before this but things might change late in week 2.
Monday: Trend continues to weak the positive anomaly in the West and shift it eastward/southeast, along with some of the heat. In combination with the negative anomaly in Southeast Canada weakening, which lessens the amount of cool air in the Midwest/East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Sunday: Welcome back metmike! AO close to 0. NAO slightly negative. PNA wildly gyrating still and favoring positive with the exact location of the heat ridge in the West playing a role.
Monday: AO around 0. NAO around 0 but with a wide spread because of uncertainty with a potential trough in the Northeast......or no trough. PNA gyrating from positive to near 0.
Tuesday: AO near 0. NAO a bit negative with the potential upper level trough in Southeast Canada meaning a factor. PNA has an extremely wide spread, much uncertainty out West.
Wednesday: AO negative. NAO being negative is connected to the trough in the East and a factor in a cooler to even much cooler outlook late in week 2. PNA still fluctuating wildly but near 0 at the end of 2 weeks.
Thursday: AO negative. NAO solidly negative with deep trough in the East to Midwest, high confidence of cool pattern there to the middle of the country. PNA jumping all over the place, either side of 0.
Friday: AO negative, increasing late. NAO very negative for Summer.....strong cooling influence.......increasing a bit late. PNA continues to bounce around favoring positive with the ridge out West.
Saturday: AO negative. NAO very negative for Summer and very cool in week 2 but increasing late. PNA decreasing from positive. Potential for some changes late week 2?
Sunday: AO a shade negative. NAO rebounds from solidly negative(cool) towards zero at the end of 2 weeks.......pattern change? PNA climbs from negative in week 2 to near 0 at the end.
Monday: AO a bit negative. NAO is very negative and cool until late week 2, when it surges back to near 0, if realized, this is signaling a pattern change to warmer in the 2nd week of August. PNA goes from slight negative to positive.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment.
Last Sunday: Welcome back metmike: The new location of the heat will be in the northern half of the US, as the heat continues out West but spreads east across the country. Below temps favored in the South. How much rain is the huge question. One factor modulating rains will be the location of the center of the heat ridge. Will it allow fronts on the east side? Will it be a ring of fire pattern with perturbations coming over the top and firing up storm clusters? Will it be farther northeast and shut down rains? Could it be so far east that it allows systems to the west to really increase rains across the Plains and points eastward as deep moisture returns?
Monday: Heat out West, spreading east, especially northern tier. Not as much heat in the deep south. Precip? Historically, the set up can be on the dry side but some of the models have average to above average rains.
Tuesday: The NWS will go hot north and not as hot south again. Probably lots of rain but this pattern could turn dry of the cold fronts coming south of the border stay farther north and the heat ridge is more dominant.
Wednesday: Cooler today in the Midwest/East late in this period vs yesterday..........heat will be out West. Potentially drier with uncertainty.
Thursday: High confidence for increase in cooler temps Midwest to Northeast and points south. Heat in the West. Rains may be skimpy early, then pick up..........great uncertainty.
Friday. Hot West, cooler east. Dryish 6-10 day, uncertain but more rains 8-14 day.
Saturday: Same as Friday on these products.
Sunday: Pattern change late week 2? That would not show up on these products yet.
Monday: Heat may start spreading northeast late in week 2 and along with it, an increase in rains.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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