Looks like this administration is expanding the deficit big time
The Dems if they ever assume power will likely spend even more money
This is not just a Dem or Pub spending issue. The majority in congress are willing to spend, re: the recent agreement on the budget ceiling
My question
Will the reserve dollar continue to enjoy world confidence. I think the USD will continue to be the reserve dollar for a long, long time
What I don't know is how long the USA gov't and other world gov't can continue to run huge deficit spending programs and not hit a brick wall.
I suppose the question might be??
When does inflation really take hold, if one believes inflation will happen when we hit the brick wall
Will it be world inflation this time??? and we just use more money to purchase the same stuff?? while world trade continues as usual??
This is a great topic and wonderful questions Wayne. I'm not sure what the answer is but there is tremendous disagreement about its.
For me, it seems like eventually the debt will be so overwhelming and large that it collapses the system and politicians, being who they are will keep the entitlement OVER spending going as long as possible to maximize their electability from voters who reap benefits. They are willing to do this until it becomes a crisis vs forcing the spending discipline on us with smart decisions to sustain a healthy balance sheet that we all know is best for our country in the long run...............instead of living for today.
Sooner or later, the US will enter a recession. My best guess is it will happen sometime in 2020. I may be off (early) by a year or two, but it’s coming.
Is there a way out of all of this? Absolutely. We can overhaul the tax system, actually balance the budget, fund all the entitlement spending, and watch GDP growth once again become part of our national conversation.
But it will take a crisis before we consider that. In the meantime, let’s pay attention to how the rules are changing and adapt.
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economy-wont-collapse-3980688
Have you come across those websites that urge you to prepare for the coming U.S. economic collapse? They start by saying the debt is unsustainable, the dollar is in a bubble, or the Federal Reserve is printing dollars. Those assertions are all true, but they’re nothing new and nothing to panic over.
In fact, the U.S. economy is doing fine. Here are the top 10 reasons why it won't collapse. Included are rebuttals to the negativists' claims.
What I would like to know is how exactly would you do a balanced budget
I am assuming any candidate that wants to increase your taxes would have a hard time to get your vote.
So lets face it, we are pooched
It's not finite. You don't have to increase taxes to increase revenue. Revenue is up strongly this year and had they held spending in some semblance of control,we'd have a much smaller deficit. Keep spending increases at or below inflation,and we'd have significant surpluses within a few years.
Reagan summed it up. "It's not that we're taxed too little, it's that the government spends too much".
I have heard this for yrs
Keep spending less
Okay, then spend less where and how much
I don't think people realize how much a trillion really is
Below inflation spending would take forever to get to a balanced budget
I have yet to see hard numbers. Nobody can do that and come up with a trillion in savings
Generalities just doesn't impress me as being realistic
True gov't spends too much
SO; Back to my original question
Where do the cuts come from
A trillion dollars is huge
Run the numbers and you will see below inflation would take forever. Statements of generalities without any numbers doesn't convince anybody
We would hit the brick wall 1st
I need to see proof [cold hard numbers of a trillion or more] to be convinced otherwise
Also a voting electorate that would support such a cost cutting exercise
As for increased revenues from a strong economy
You have to know those revenues will not be forever, unless it is from inflation which isn't happening today
The day/yr.whatever inflation takes off [if it does]
One more reason why
We are pooched
Do not worry. Everything is on schedule and being taken care of. No worries. . . .
yes, "the balance" is wrong. i have given this explanation many times before, but here goes again.
growth has been getting weaker, and weaker, and weaker, each passing decade. 6%, then 5%, then 4%, then 3%, then 2%..., etc. etc. next decade will be 1%, then 0%, then contraction.....
many things affect growth, how much bureaucracy, taxes, debt, etc. as debt has gotten larger and larger, growth has gotten weaker and weaker. someone who preaches that old "deficits-don't-matter" mentality, is very naive. this is not just u.s. govt debt, but all debt. city debt, state debt, my debt. company debt, and yes, u.s. debt.
every empire eventually goes down the drain because of... too much debt, debasing the currency, too many deficits, military overexpansion (this gets too expensive), and too much socialism (this gets expensive). too much taxation.
argentina has its own currency, but this has not helped them. japan has done all those things... print its own money to pay its debts, and it has almost zero growth.
europe is going the route of japan. massive debt, and almost no growth. within 2 decades i expect to see europe in a horrible depression. and also probably america, and japan.
long term, by 2070, all that money printing will give us 30% inflation, and 30% unemployment. and they will blame all that inflation on something else (not their reckless MMT).
printing money today, does not cause inflation today. but sooner or later the you-know-what hits the fan. (all that money supply increase of the 50,60,&70's caused the inflation of the 70's and 80's).
that is why buying gold is protection against reckless govt policies.
C'mon Richard
That post is opinion at best
Nothing you posted is hard numbers
We are pooched, but everybody thinks things will last forever
I got news for you
Nothing lasts forever
I expect much better from you Richard
Run some numbers
You will see that Trump understands the numbers
He said the USA is the piggy bank to the world
What he is saying is the USA prints fiat to buy stuff
He has done his best to build up the USA economy
But if you track the number of ocean going ships, making their way to the USA, you would be amazed
The USA still buys more than it sells. Trump was emphatic about the number of containers being unloaded at ports on the coast/ports of the USA. In his election campaign he made time in almost every rally to mention this fact. Said this had to stop, if the target audience understood what he was talking about. This is one reason why his rallies were so well attended. He could switch gears and entertain the crowd
For those of you who live under a rock, the amount of value in those containers vs out going value of goods is called the Balance of Payments
The balance of payments and a congress willing to spend money is debt
The only way this continues is the printing of fiat
This fiat is sold as bonds, so we have the illusion of value for our cash transaction of bond buying
This is actually debt
A trillion dollars worth of debt
Trump knows his numbers
Why do you think he is after the Fed to lower int rates
Two possible reasons I can think of
1] Higher int rates would cause much higher % of budget needed to make int payments. This would send the debt much higher and faster
Now imagine int payments on a trillion Every quarter pt is huge.
At some point the I.O.U's meet the brick wall of confidence
Doesn't this make you think and no Richard it is not being taken care of
Debt in proportion to the ability to service the debt is good
Debt with a borrowed I.O.U is not good
Trump can read the numbers
That is one thing he does very well
Trump is not hapy with the Fed
2nd reason
This may be rumour but is rumoured Trump would like to see the Fed disappear
One possible reason why the Fed is listening to Trump
Trump also sees the far east trying to make a system of hard currency work for payments and settlements
Not so much to worry about today but give then time
They might just make it work given their population numbers etc.
Nothing lasts forever
Have you noticed how long it takes for most markets to move up, using a graph over time
Have you noticed how quickly a market can go down
What we don't know is how long it will last [the time factor]
As of now most things look good
In the end we are still pooched