INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 15, 2018, 8:05 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, May 15, 2018   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected 14.9; previous 15.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 6.0)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 9.0)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 20.7)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.3%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May NAHB Housing Market Index

 



 

 

                       Housing Mkt Idx (expected 69; previous 69)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. March Treasury International Capital Data

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.9M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.7M)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6762.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6762.34. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.    



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2676.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is May's low crossing at 2592.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is April's low crossing at 141-17. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.



June T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.031 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.031. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.180. First support is the late-April low crossing at 118.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 71.89. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.86.  



June heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 227.17. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 204.91. 



June unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 248.43 is the next upside target. Closes below May's low crossing at 205.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 221.47. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is May's low crossing at 205.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 204.24. 



June Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 2.873 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.769 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 2.695. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.660.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.37.



The June Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, last-November low crossing at 117.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.83. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 117.35. 



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3761 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3569. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3761. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3480. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3148.  



The June Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0123 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0123. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0386. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If June resumes the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at 79.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 76.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight and poised to resume the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9196 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9196. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9347. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.9109. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1321.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1321.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20.



July silver was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.529 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 16.950 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.950. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is May's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805. 



June copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 315.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 315.65. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/2. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4.  



July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.87 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.11 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 1/4-cents at 5.09 3/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.39 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is today's low crossing at 5.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.13 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's losses.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.43 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10.01 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2. 



July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 373.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 391.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is the late-April low crossing at 373.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00. 



July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.64 would open the door for additional short-term gains. If July resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. First support is April's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $1.05 at $76.15 



June hogs closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the late-April low, April's high crossing at 79.10 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 70.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 79.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. First support is the late-April low crossing at 72.20. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25. 



June cattle closed down $3.00 at 104.60. 



June cattle closed limit down on Monday. The limit-down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's limit-down close signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.80. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $3.53 at $140.37. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 140.08 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 147.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 149.08. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is the reaction low crossing at 140.08. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 11.53 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.11 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renewed this year's rally, the contract high crossing at 30.20 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.50 is the next downside target.  



July sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.53 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 95.10 is the next upside target.   

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